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【中投证券】亚通股份:业绩符合预期、短期内轮渡业务将持续增长

中投證券 ·  Aug 18, 2009 00:00  · Researches

The business situation was normal in the first half of the year, and the core passenger ferry and vehicle ferry business continued to grow. A total of 4.1955 million passengers were transported in the first half of the year, an increase of 4.1% over the same period of the previous year; 621,300 vehicles were transported, an increase of 3.9% over the same period of the previous year; the revenue of the ferry passenger business was 149.9 million, an increase of 4.6% over the same period last year. Looking forward to the future, with the development of Chongming, the construction of a land transportation system between Shanghai and Chongming has put the company's ferry business at risk of being replaced. Although the East Line project (Shanghai Pudong - Changxing Island - Chongming Island), which is about to be completed in the short term, has limited diversion of the company's passengers, in the long run, with the commencement of the West Line project and the extension of rail transit to Chongming Island, the ferry business will eventually fall out of the market, and the company's main business is under pressure to transform. The shipping subsidiary sold all chemical ships and had no revenue during the reporting period, which was the main reason for the decline in the company's total revenue. The company's engineering, advertising, and travel businesses other than the ferry business all achieved varying degrees of growth in the first half of the year, while the product sales business fell from 1.76 million in the same period last year to 2.42 million this year, which led to a decrease of 1.31% in total revenue over the same period last year. The increase in profits was mainly due to falling fuel prices, reduced financial expenses, and increased financial subsidies. The drop in fuel prices raised the company's gross margin from 22.41% in the same period last year to 22.95% this year. At the same time, due to the repayment of long-term loans, the company's financial expenses were reduced from 14.78 million in the same period last year to 10.94 million this year, a decrease of 3.84 million. Furthermore, in the first half of the year, the company received a total of 7.42 million yuan in fuel subsidies, corporate support funds, and financial interest rates, which was 2.5 times that of the same period last year, which also led to a significant increase in net profit. The real estate business is expected to gradually contribute revenue to the company starting next year. The nearly 100,000 square meter “Chongming New Town Plot No. 24” commercial housing project controlled by the company has already entered the substantial construction stage and is expected to start providing a new growth point for the company's performance next year. Maintain the company's “neutral” investment rating. We expect the company's operating income from 2009 to 2011 to be 530 million, 710 million, and 800 million, respectively; net profit attributable to the parent company will be 27 million, 40 million, and 55 million, respectively, an average annual increase of 29%; and diluted earnings per share will be 0.08, 0.11, and 0.16 yuan, respectively. In the short term, we believe that the company's stock price basically reflects various expectations and maintains a “neutral” rating. Considering the development opportunities of Chongming, investors are advised to pay attention for a long time.

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