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【渤海证券】珠江实业深度调研报告

渤海證券 ·  Feb 27, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Guangzhou state-owned real estate development enterprise. The majority shareholders are relatively rich in project resources. Pearl River Industrial is one of the earliest comprehensive real estate development enterprises established in Guangzhou, and a key state-owned real estate development enterprise in Guangzhou. The majority shareholder is Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Group. Over the past 20 years, the total real estate development area has exceeded 2 million square meters, and the total hotel property management area has reached more than 2 million square meters. Performance reserves are abundant. Net profit in 2010 is expected to increase by 54.2% year on year. The company's unsettled projects are distributed in Guangzhou and Changsha. The project location is superior, with a total construction area of about 632,200 square meters. It is expected to contribute 4.331 billion yuan in sales revenue over the next 7 years, net profit after tax of 426 million yuan, and 2.28 yuan per share, respectively, 12.72, 13.83 and 13.83 times the similar indicators in 2007. As a result, the company's performance reserves are abundant, but it is expected to be achieved after 2010. The company's real estate projects will be the first to benefit from the recovery of the Guangzhou real estate market. It is estimated that 44,000 and 44,000 square meters will be settled in 08 and 09, respectively, with settlement revenue of 220 million yuan and 320 million yuan respectively. According to the current sales and development situation, the company's real estate projects will enter the peak settlement period after 2010. The reasonable stock price is 6.5 yuan/share. The net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of Pearl River Industrial in 2008 and 2009 is 247.383 and 21.5306 million yuan, respectively, and earnings per share are 0.13 and 0.12 yuan respectively. In 2010, the company's net profit will increase by 54.2% over the previous month, and the high growth in performance will occur after 2010. From a PE perspective, the company's valuation level is too high. Considering the period for achieving the company's performance and the profitability of its assets, the company was given 1.5 times PB, and the corresponding stock price was 6 yuan/share. At the same time, based on existing real estate development project estimates, the company's net assets per share were reassessed at 6.51 yuan. The current stock price is basically reasonable. Give a neutral rating. Risks suggest that macroeconomic uncertainty and the sales and settlement situation of the Pearl River New Town project will affect the achievement of the company's 2009 results. In addition, the company's third rate is higher, and the financing channel is relatively single. As development projects increase, capital requirements will increase. Short-term financial pressure is less.

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