Main points of investment:
In the area where the project is located, the transaction volume of commercial housing has dropped month-on-month.
The company's real estate projects are mainly distributed in Guangzhou and Changsha. In the Guangzhou real estate market, residential transaction volume dropped 5.38% in April compared with the same period in April, and in the first 10 days of May, it further decreased by 19.78% compared with the same period in April. The turnover volume gradually slowed down due to the delay of new construction. However, due to the delay of new construction, the cycle of removal of commercial housing remained low in April, and the contradiction between supply and demand will still exist. In the Changsha real estate market, residential transaction volume rose 17.95% in April from the previous month, and dropped 5.43% in the first 11 days of May compared with the same period in April; the average transaction price rose 5.6% in April and 1.93% in the first 11 days of May compared with the same period in April; volume and price slowed down.
Due to the scarcity of resources for sale and the delay in construction, the available resources will be greatly increased in 2011.
The company is mainly under construction, a total of 4 projects, distributed in Guangzhou and Changsha, a total construction area of about 1.0983 million square meters, the average floor price of 809 yuan / square meter, low land cost. At present, the company is mainly selling resources for the tail houses of Changsha Pearl River Huacheng and Pearl River New Bank, and there are few resources for sale. The resources to be sold in 10 years are the third group of Changsha Pearl River Huacheng and the southern part of Pearl River New City. The company plans to start selling in September and is expected to achieve sales revenue of 426 million yuan. In addition, under the influence of the Asian Games, the Guangzhou project basically started after the Asian Games, that is, after November 27, 2010; therefore, construction slows down, performance release is delayed, and it is expected that the available resources will increase significantly in 2011.
Reasonable share price 12 yuan per share
It is estimated that the major projects under construction will settle 5.7 square meters and 79300 square meters respectively in 2010 and 2011, and the settlement income will be 4.26 yuan and 796 million yuan respectively. Taking into account the 73 million yuan received in advance on the new bank of the Pearl River, the net profit belonging to the owner of the parent company in 2010 and 2011 was 8541.97 yuan and 165.689 million yuan respectively, and the earnings per share were 0.46 yuan and 0.89 yuan respectively. The company's net profit will grow by 37% and 94% in 2010 and 2011 respectively, and the growth rate of performance will slow in 2010, but will enter a period of rapid growth in 2010 and 2012. Taking into account the high revaluation value of the stock property and the expectation of asset injection by major shareholders, as well as the rapid growth in 11 and 12 years, the buy rating is given, with a target price of 12 yuan per share.
Risk hint
The sales and settlement of the Pearl River Metro project will affect the company's 10-and 11-year performance. In addition, the impact of policy regulation has yet to be seen, and the start of the company's project will further affect the performance after 2011.