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【新时代证券】珠江实业:业绩高增长期已过

[new era Securities] Pearl River Industry: the period of high performance growth has passed.

新時代證券 ·  Jun 13, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The company is a typical small and medium-sized developer: at present, the company's project reserves are mainly concentrated in Guangzhou and Changsha, with a total value of about 10 billion yuan. Limited to the financial strength and other objective reasons, the company has only announced the land twice since 2009, and the subsequent project reserve resources are less.

13-14 years sales "before high and then low": in 2013, the company's sales projects mainly include Guangzhou Yide Mansion, Changsha Pearl River Huacheng and Pearl River Yancheng, with annual sales expected to be 3.05 billion yuan in 2013; the company's saleable resources will be significantly reduced in 2014, even though it is optimistically estimated that part of the Huaying site will be sold in 2014, we expect the company's sales in 2014 will still decline significantly, basically around 2.1 billion yuan.

The decline in profit growth in 13-14 years: in 2013, the company mainly settled Yide Mansion and Pearl River Huacheng. It is estimated that the company's net profit belonging to the owner of the parent company in 2013 was 420 million yuan, an increase of 23.5% over the same period last year; in 2014, it was mainly settled at the end of Yide Mansion and Pearl River Yancheng. If the equity profit of Guanglong project is confirmed to be 50% in 2014, the company's net profit in 2014 will be 480 million yuan, an increase of 13.7% over the same period last year.

Investment advice and rating: the company's EPS from 2012 to 2014 is expected to be 1.35yuan and 1.53yuan respectively. We have noticed the efforts of the company's management in market-oriented reform, but with the disappearance of the "land dividend", the company's subsequent project reserves are relatively scarce, and the company is facing the problem of weak financial strength, and there is great uncertainty in future operating performance. We pay attention to giving a "neutral" investment rating for the first time.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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