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【海通证券】珠江实业:预期较确定的高成长

海通證券 ·  Mar 16, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Investment advice: Starting in 2009, the company's performance is expected to grow rapidly. The recent recovery trend in the Guangzhou real estate market has provided external possibilities; even if the industry continues to recover for a short period of time, the company's Pearl River New Bank project and the bungalow portion of the Pearl River New Town project can reach the expected sales volume in 2009, because the size of the two is small and the absorption time required is extremely short; the adjustment of the incentive mechanism for market expectations will provide a strong endogenous impetus for performance release. The majority shareholder of Pearl River Industrial is Zhushi Group. The latter is strong and has extremely impressive assets. Pearl River Industrial is the only listed real estate company under the Guangzhou Municipal State-owned Assets Administration Commission. The status of an “only child” is unquestionable. We expect that after years of integration and waiting, Zhushi Group's strategic restructuring may be expected to achieve breakthrough progress in 2009. Furthermore, the 2010 Asian Games will be held in Guangzhou, which will have an indirect but long-lasting impact on the company's projects. It is predicted that the company's EPS for 2008-2010 will be 0.13 yuan, 0.70 yuan, and 1.15 yuan, respectively. The company's performance is expected to grow rapidly, and there are certain asset injection expectations. Therefore, we maintain the company's “buy” investment rating and give it a target price of 11.50 yuan for 6 months based on 10 times PE calculated by 10-year EPS.

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