Main points of investment:
Event: Changan Automobile issued an announcement on March 6, suspending trading on March 9 due to the company's planning of major issues.
Conclusion: the company is expected to upgrade the reform of central enterprises and maintain the "overweight" rating. The automobile industry has a high degree of marketization and is the forerunner of the reform of local state-owned enterprises, and the reform expectation of central automobile enterprises is also high.
We speculate that this major issue of Changan Automobile includes reform measures such as management incentives. Changan Automobile Group is the largest shareholder of the company and Changan Automobile, and its reform is expected to heat up at the same time.
In 2014, the diesel engine market is facing the fourth national transformation, with a decline in sales and a decline in gross profit margin for old products, lowering its profit forecast for 2014 to 0.02 yuan (originally 0.06). The transition of the fourth National Day was completed in 2015, and sales volume and product gross profit margin are expected to return to normal levels. Maintain the profit forecast of 0.07 for 2015.
Reform to improve corporate governance, according to the valuation of the military industry, give 10.7 times PB, raising the target price to 7.8 yuan (originally 7 yuan).
The market for passenger car gasoline turbochargers is expected to grow. Under the pressure of environmental protection, the fuel consumption standard of passenger cars will be strictly enforced. Turbocharging technology is the preferred energy saving and emission reduction means for traditional fuel vehicles, the carrying rate of independent brand turbochargers will be greatly improved, the company's product target market will continue to grow, and growth is expected.
Catalyst: Changan Automobile Central Enterprise Reform Plan was introduced.
Risk hint: the progress of the reform of central enterprises is not as good as expected; the market promotion of gasoline turbocharged products is not as expected.
