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【巨田证券】G亚通:中短线观望 长线增持

巨田證券 ·  Mar 6, 2006 00:00  · Researches

Construction of the Chongming Yangtze River Tunnel Project is progressing smoothly. It is currently in the preparation stage before the shield structure is installed. At the same time, the project improved the construction plan. The original plan for Metro Line 9 (from Songjiang New Town to Xujiahui and then crossing the Huangpu River to Pudong) was adjusted to extend the track directly through the Yangtze River Tunnel Project to Chongming Island. At that time, the journey time from downtown Shanghai to Chongming Island will be shortened to about 45 minutes? As the development of Chongming Island progresses, it will bring huge business opportunities, and the most concentrated sector will still be the real estate industry. The company has planned to reserve local land resources in Chongming. Currently, the total reserves have reached 2,500 mu, but it is mainly agricultural land. Due to lower costs, with the overall rise in land prices in Chongming, the potential appreciation of these lands is more than 300 million yuan. At the same time, the company will continue to actively bid for more land that can be directly used for commercial development through government relationships. The company's inland waterway passenger transportation and passenger transportation business has maintained a good operating trend. In particular, the high-speed passenger transport business is currently full, and there is plenty of room for growth. As development on the island progresses, the company expects that the increase in passenger logistics will maintain an average annual increase of about 15%. The biggest uncertainty comes from fuel costs. If international oil prices remain stable at the 60-70 US dollar level, the company's performance will grow steadily over the next 5 years. The company was severely impacted by rising oil prices in 2005 and preparations for depreciation of the Chongming Island. As a result, the annual results will decline to a certain extent. The company's annual report will be published on March 28. We forecast earnings per share for 2005 to be around 0.10 yuan. This year, as oil prices stabilize at a high level and steady growth in business volume, earnings per share are expected to return to the level of 0.15 yuan in previous years. We believe that in the context of the development of Chongming, the investment theme corresponding to the company's special location and status has not changed. The company still has outstanding strategic investment value and is worthy of long-term growth, but from a medium- to short-term perspective, there are no explosive themes or factors that can greatly increase the valuation level, so it only has transactional opportunities in sync with the general trend, and it is recommended to keep watching in the medium to short term.

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