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【民生证券】信达地产:地产业务提速,稀缺模式值得关注

民生證券 ·  Jun 8, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The financial real estate model is unique, and the majority shareholders are supported by three aspects of project capital and new business. As the only real estate listing platform under China Cinda, the company has received full support from major shareholders in terms of project acquisition, financial support, and new business development. In terms of projects, in the disposal of major shareholders' non-performing assets, it is possible to take the opportunity to obtain higher quality and mature projects at lower costs. Currently, projects such as the Qionghai Project and the Jiayue Group have already been implemented, and it is expected that this model of project acquisition will continue in the later stages. In terms of capital, implementing the “small stock trading” mode of operation in conjunction with the asset management business of major shareholders, reducing the financial pressure on land acquisition in large and medium-sized cities, and increasing the scale of real estate development are necessary ways for small and medium-sized real estate companies to achieve rapid expansion. In developing new businesses, we serve major shareholders in bad asset disposal business, and carry out export of real estate development and management capabilities. An additional 2 billion yuan was issued to effectively reduce the company's debt level. The company announced an additional issuance plan. It plans to issue additional shares at no less than 8.37 yuan/share, raise no less than 2 billion yuan of capital to invest in the construction of three projects: Hefei Cinda Tianyu, Chongqing Binjiang Lanting, and Ningbo Grand Junting Phase 1. At the end of the first quarter of 2015, the company's balance ratio reached 78.2%, which is at a high level in the industry. If the fund-raising plan is carried out smoothly, it will improve the capital structure, reduce the level of debt, and at the same time significantly speed up the construction process of core projects and increase the turnover rate. The real estate development business is growing rapidly and has entered a harvest period. In 2013/2014, the company's land acquisition rate accelerated, and the planned construction area of the new land was 2.8 and 4.6 times the sales area of that year, respectively. The company's new projects are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and central regions, which are also regions that have benefited the most from this round of real estate policy relaxation and market rebound. It is estimated that the company's sales in 2015 and 2016 will reach 8,010 billion yuan respectively. Judging from the carry-over, at the end of the first quarter of 2015, the company received 5.15 billion yuan in advance payments, strong performance lock-in, an area of 3.8 million square meters under construction, and a planned construction area of about 5.1 million square meters of reserve projects, which ensured the continuous increase in the company's carry-over scale. Risk warning. Risk warning: (1) sales performance falls short of expectations; (2) majority shareholders' support falls short of expected profit forecasts and investment suggestions. We believe that with the abundant projects and capital resources of the majority shareholders and the region-focused layout strategy of the company's projects, the real estate development business is expected to experience rapid growth. At the same time, the continued development of asset-light businesses such as financial real estate will effectively hedge against the impact of declining gross margin in real estate development business. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2015 to 2017 will be 0.62/0.76/0.92 yuan, respectively, giving it a “highly recommended” investment rating.

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