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【申银万国证券】外高桥:物业储备超预期,上调RNAV并重申买入

申萬宏源 ·  Apr 9, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The company's total property reserves exceeded expectations, and the current land use type structure was also better than expected, raising the company's RNAV by 55% from 35.4 billion to 54.7 billion. Today, Waigaoqiao announced the company's property resource reserves. The park currently has a construction area of 3.17 million square meters on the built site, 1.15 million square meters of construction on the construction site, and 3.2 million square meters of construction area on the unbuilt site, exceeding our expectations. 1) We originally anticipated that the company has now built a reserve area of 3.17 million square meters, which is higher than our expectations. In the construction industry, the construction area of factories and warehouses is about 2.69 million square meters, higher than our previous estimate of 2.2 million square meters. The construction area of commercial land is about 420,000 square meters. The rent price for this part of the land is high. It is estimated to be 4 yuan/square meter/day, which is 4-5 times that of a factory/warehouse. We hadn't taken that into account before. According to the company's latest disclosure estimates, the RNAV for completed and owned properties is 25.2 billion, which is 12 billion dollars higher than the original estimate. 2) The construction area of the company's existing and unplanned reserve properties is 4.35 million square meters, including 1.84 million square meters of plants and warehouses, mainly distributed in the bonded zone (1.1 million square meters), bonded logistics park, logistics park phase II (420,000 square meters); commercial land of 1.87 million square meters, mainly distributed in the bonded zone (1.16 million square meters), Sunland business district (690,000 square meters); and 640,000 square meters of residential land, mainly distributed in Sunland international community. Commercial and residential property reserves with higher value content accounted for 58% of ongoing and planned unbuilt properties, which also accounted for a higher share than expected. 3) The property reserve area announced by the company does not include about 1.5 million square meters of undemolished land built in the second phase of the logistics park, nor does it take into account possible future increases in floor area ratio and changes in the nature of the land. The company is a substantial leader in secondary land development in free trade zones, and continues to be optimistic that secondary development will bring huge room for improvement in the company's value. 1) Secondary land development and transformation of the nature of land use in the Waigaoqiao region is imperative. Free trade zones will increase the proportion of the service industry in terms of industrial development. Currently, nearly 80% of land that can be used in Waigaoqiao is land for industrial storage. Utilization efficiency is low, which is inconsistent with the development positioning of the free trade zone, so supporting adjustments in land use plans will inevitably be required in the future. 2) The company RNAV is expected to increase significantly in the future. The company currently has 1.08 million square meters of undeveloped industrial storage land and logistics park phase II undeveloped land, as well as the old factory warehouses and inefficient utilization parts of the sales park currently held by the company, all of which are likely to be adjusted in the nature of land use and secondary development, which will bring about a significant increase in the company's value. For details, please participate in our in-depth report “Waigaoqiao: A Substantial Leader in Secondary Land Development in Free Trade Zones” on January 8. Waigaoqiao Property Reserve exceeded expectations, raising RNAV 55% to 54.7 billion. Currently, it is discounted by nearly half, and continues to be optimistic about the development of the Free Trade Zone and the huge opportunities for secondary development of land within the region, reaffirming the “buy” rating. The company's property reserves exceeded expectations, raising RNAV by 55% to 54.7 billion, and P/RNAV by only 53%, below the industry average of about 60%. Considering the ratio of sales and self-owned properties, we moderately adjusted the company's EPS for the 13th and 14th years to 0.55 and 1.08 yuan (the original forecast was 0.59 and 1.27 yuan), and the corresponding PE was 52X and 27X respectively. At the same time, the development of the free trade zone and the secondary development of land within the region have brought huge room for improvement in the company's value, reaffirming the “buy” rating!

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