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【东海证券】天宸股份:销售不畅,09年业绩料将大幅下滑

東海證券 ·  Apr 15, 2009 00:00  · Researches

The sold area of Beijing Guangyi Tower has reached 51%, and all of it has been carried over into revenue. Sales of the remaining portion are currently progressing slowly. Guangyi Building is located at No. 5 Guangyi Street, Guangnei, Xuanwu District. The company's equity ratio is 51%. The plot was acquired at the end of 2002 and construction began in 2004. The total planned construction area of the project is 60,000 square meters, including 20,000 square meters of residences, office buildings, and shops, with an average sales price of 12,000 yuan/square meter. By the end of 2008, 51% of the project had been sold, and the return capital of 390 million yuan had been settled. Since the domestic office market has not picked up yet, and transactions have been completely deserted, sales of the remaining area of Guang Yi Building are currently progressing very slowly. The 60,000-square-meter commercial property in Shanghai Rose Plaza Phase II has been capped and a pre-sale license has been obtained, but on-site sales are very poor. The project is located in the middle section of Sichuan North Road, Hongkou District, Shanghai, close to Sichuan North Road Park. The surrounding commercial prosperity and convenient transportation are convenient. The company's equity ratio is 100%, the project was obtained in 2000, the land price is zero, and the demolition cost is about 30 million yuan. The total planned construction area of the project is about 88,000 square meters. Construction began in 2004, and the project was developed in two phases. The first phase of 28,000 square meters of housing has been sold out and all carried over; the second phase is a 5A grade office building with 3 floors underground, 31 floors above ground, and a total height of 142 meters. It consists of a 30,000 square meter office building and a 30,000 square meter shopping mall podium, all of which have now been sealed ahead of schedule and obtained pre-sale certificates. According to our field research, there are very few on-site sales office buyers, and the sales situation is lackluster. The estimated price of the office building is 20,000 to 30,000 yuan/square meter; the shopping mall podium is used for leasing. Currently, it is still in the renovation stage, and the estimated annual income after leasing can reach 60 million yuan. The logistics park in Zhuanqiao, Minhang, Shanghai covers an area of 300 acres. The current operating conditions are poor, with annual losses of 2 to 3 million yuan. The company wants to replan its business direction. The logistics park in Zhuanqiao is commercial land. In addition to eviction and demolition fees, a total of 30 million yuan was paid for the land. As of today, the company has completed the remediation work of the damaged land that needs to be demolished. Due to the large-scale relocation affecting the parking lot business and the rental business of the goods loan building, the overall operating performance of the park declined, and the park's operating profit lost 2 to 3 million yuan per year: the Chennan Hotel, to which it belongs, has been in a state of loss since 2000, with an annual loss of 3-4 million yuan; the parking lot has contributed 1-2 million yuan in net profit every year; the current profit situation of the goods loan building is poor, and losses are expected in 2009. Passenger transport companies affiliated with Shanghai operate normally and can bring in a net profit of 7 to 8 million yuan per year. In recent years, the company's taxi business has been operating normally and the cash flow is stable. This has become a stable source of profit for the company. The net profit brought by this business often fluctuates due to factors such as oil prices and government subsidies, but the net profit achieved by the 300 taxis operated by the company is basically maintained at 7 to 8 million yuan throughout the year. Tianchen Pharmaceutical Company, which is wholly owned by the company, has ended contract operations and is expected to lose about 10 million yuan in 2009. The company has ended Tianchen Pharmaceutical's external contract operation, and now the focus of work is on the inspection and acceptance of GMP drug certificates. At present, it has obtained the “Pharmaceutical GMP Certificate” issued by the China Food and Drug Administration, and the company is already producing normally. Tianchen Pharmaceutical has always been in a state of loss, and is expected to lose about 10 million yuan in 2009. The company now has more than 400 acres of first-class arable land near Shanghai Pudong International Airport. Future land use will depend on government plans. In the vicinity of Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the company also owns more than 400 acres of agricultural land. This plot of land is secured by debt and is a national type of arable land. Unless the government replans it, its use will not change. The land is far from Chuansha Town in the Pudong New Area, and is now used to grow watermelons every year. ? In 2009, in order to ease short-term financial pressure, the company is expected to lend 1-2 billion yuan to banks. The company's debt structure is not reasonable. Most of the loans are short-term, and repayment pressure was high in 2009. The company has short-term loans of 300 million yuan and non-current liabilities of 200 million yuan due within one year, while long-term loans of 5 million yuan have monetary capital of only 77 million yuan. Obviously, in 2009, the company was under a lot of repayment pressure, and it is expected to lend 1-2 billion yuan to banks. ? The target price is 8.00 yuan, giving the company a “neutral” investment rating for the first time. In 09 and 10, the company's performance will mainly come from sales of the Rose Plaza Phase II and Guangyi Building real estate projects. The company's EPS for 09 and 10 is expected to be 0.07 and 0.26 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 108X and 29X respectively. Considering that since the divestment process of the ineffective and inefficient assets of the company involved in personnel placement is very slow, and that the company's current land storage only meets the development needs for the next 2 years, there is great uncertainty about future land acquisition, we set the company's target price of 8.00 yuan, giving it a “neutral” investment rating for the first time.

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