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【中银国际证券】天宸股份:现金公司亟待转型收购微创辟新路

中銀國際證券 ·  Feb 5, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Tianchen Co., Ltd. gradually reduced and phased out the real estate business in 2010-14, and the intention to transform was there; at the end of 2014, the company joined hands with Tang Jun, the former president of Microsoft, to acquire 54% of the shares in minimally innovative software. In the early days of Minimalism, an IT service provider founded by the Shanghai State Assets Administration Commission and Microsoft of the United States, it had advantages in terms of business breadth, leading technology and certification resources. Currently, Microsoft still holds 22% of the shares. Tang Shuaijun, who later became an IT industry expert, will personally lead the printing, reorganize and return the microinnovation business to the right track, laying the foundation for further business transformation and equity operations; Furthermore, the company The debt ratio is only 15%, and the shares held in the Greenland and Minhang projects are revalued at about 8 billion yuan, which is easy to monetize. Compared with the market value of 5 billion yuan, it has an extremely high margin of safety, and at the same time, it will also provide strong financial support for transformation and development. We expect earnings per share for 2014-16 to be 0.18 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.22 yuan respectively, with a target price of 14.46 yuan, equivalent to a 15% discount on 2015 net asset value. The initial rating is buy. The main points supporting the ratings are strong willingness to transform, the time for transformation is tight, and the foundation for transformation is strong. 1) After the company sold the Rose Square project in 2010, the company did not supplement land reserves in the past 5 years, and transferred the Hebei project (holding 25.5% of shares) and cancelled the Suzhou project (holding 35% of shares) in 2014, so the company's willingness to transform was strong; 2) The company had no real estate settlement income after 12 years, and the practice of relying on Greenland Group dividends and reduced financial equity holdings to support performance is not a long-term solution. At the same time, the registration system is approaching, making subsequent high-quality, purchasable and transformational resources more scarce, and the company's transformation time is tight; 3) At the end of the third quarter of '14, the company's total assets are 9.6 100 million yuan, total liabilities With 180 million yuan, a debt ratio of only 15%, no interest-bearing debt, and 447 million yuan in cash on hand, the foundation for transformation is solid. Jointly with Tang Jun to acquire minimally innovative software, laying the foundation for further business transformation and equity operations. At the end of '14, the company and former Microsoft CEO Tang Jun increased the capital of Junwei by 51.6 million yuan and 59.12 million yuan respectively, and later acquired 54% of the shares in Minimalist Software through Junwei. In the early days of Minimalism, it was an IT service provider jointly established by the Shanghai State Assets Administration Commission and Microsoft of the United States. The latter held 22% of the shares. The latter held 22% of the shares. Currently, it has 74 software copyright registration certificates, 18 software product registration certificates, and nearly 4,000 technical experts, with annual revenue close to 1 billion yuan, but due to poor management in 2014 The loss has just been reversed, and the IT industry will follow Expert Tang Jun will personally take charge of Shuai Yin, reorganize minimally innovative operations and return their operations to the right track, laying the foundation for further business transformation and equity operations. It holds shares in Greenland and the Minhang project with about 8 billion dollars of high-quality and easily monetized assets, providing a strong safety cushion and helping transformation and development. 1) Greenland Equity: The company currently holds 278 million shares of Greenland Group, providing dividends of 59.84 million yuan to the company in 2014. After Greenland went public, the company held 2.29% of its shares. We estimate that the NAV of Greenland Group's pure real estate business could reach 2300-250 billion yuan, and the overall NAV of the Group could reach about 280 billion yuan. Based on the neutral valuation of Greenland Group's 240-260 billion yuan, the market value of equity belonging to the company reached 5-6 billion yuan; 2) Minhang Project: The company owns 400 acres of logistics land in Minhang, Zhuanqiao, South China (commercial park) Nature, 85% equity), the book cost is only 25 million yuan, and the floor price of surrounding commercial land is about 7,000-9,000 yuan/square meter. Based on 1.5 times the floor area ratio, the equity value of this plot is about 2 to 3 billion yuan. The main risk facing ratings is that Greenland Group's backdoor listing has been blocked; the reorganization of minimally innovative operations has had no effect. The valuation company's current revenue mainly comes from the taxi business, and the performance mainly comes from investment income. The investment income in 2014 included Greenland cash dividends of RMB 59.84 million, and income from the transfer of shares in the Hebei Jisheng Project of RMB 61.65 million. Earnings per share for 2014-16 are expected to be 0.18 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.22 yuan respectively, and the target price is set at 14.46 yuan, which is equivalent to a 15% discount on 2015 net asset value. The initial rating is buy.

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