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【海通证券】丰华股份:凤凰涅磐风华正茂

[Haitong] Fenghua shares: Phoenix Nirvana is in its prime

海通證券 ·  Feb 11, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Investment suggestion: in early 2007, Coastal Green Home (Anshan) Co., Ltd. completed the asset injection, and the Hong Kong-listed Coastal Green Home Co., Ltd. indirectly became the largest shareholder of the company. the main business has been successfully transformed from the extremely low-profit pen-making industry to real estate development. With the help of the leading experience of the coastal real estate industry, the company has broad prospects for future development.

In 2009, the company's project reserves entered the settlement period one after another, and the income from real estate development increased significantly; in addition, the compensation income from the demolition of the plant at 3601 and 2981 Dongfang Road in Shanghai significantly increased the company's performance in 2009 and 2010. The parent company coastal real estate still has large-scale assets that have not yet been injected, and there is still the possibility of inter-industry competition. The company's controlling shareholders have tried to solve this problem and publicly promised that the parent company's coastal real estate plan will gradually transition to a commercial real estate development company in about three years, while the company will become a residential development company, thus forming a clear division of labor in the business. The company previously announced the acquisition of 50% equity in Beijing Ha Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., and indirectly held 9.375% of Tongzhou Business Park through the latter, and participated in the development and construction of the Tongzhou Business Park project with a total size of 7.3 square kilometers. it provides a huge space for the company's long-term development. In the long run, the equity participation will increase the company's net present value by 5.82 yuan. If Universal Studios is located in Tongzhou, it will undoubtedly have a very long-term impact on the Tongzhou Business Park project that the company participates in. In addition, we believe that if Universal Studios is located in Tongzhou, Financial Street will benefit the most among the first-tier companies; among the second and third-tier companies, Fenghua shares will benefit the most, followed by China Wuyi and Huaye Real Estate, and Sunshine shares and Ziguang shares will benefit very little. Almost negligible. It is predicted that the EPS of the company from 2008 to 2010 is 0.47,0.75,1.02 yuan respectively. Considering that the company's projects have been settled one after another since 2009, the income of the main business will grow at a high speed. The company's net present value per share, excluding the impact of the Tongzhou Business Park project, is 9.82 yuan, and the net present value per share, which takes into account the impact of the Tongzhou Business Park project, but does not take into account the impact of Universal Studios, is 15.65 yuan, which is obviously undervalued. Therefore, for the first time, we gave the company a "buy" investment rating of 15 times PE calculated by EPS in 2009, with a six-month target price of 11.25 yuan.

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