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【国泰君安证券】大众交通中报点评:投资收益保障业绩

國泰君安 ·  Aug 21, 2012 09:00  · Researches

In the first half of 2012, Mass Transit achieved operating income, operating profit, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1,305 million yuan, 245 million yuan, and 218 million yuan, respectively, compared to -1.1%, 1.5%, and -7.3% of the previous year. Earnings of 0.14 yuan per share were achieved, in line with expectations. The main income is relatively stable. The transportation sector's revenue for the first half of the year was 1,034 billion yuan, the same as the previous year; among them, the taxi business contracted slightly, and the car leasing and logistics business continued to develop steadily. The tourism services sector's revenue was 188 million yuan, down 5% from the previous year. There was no revenue contribution during the reporting period due to the renovation and upgrading of public buildings. Affected by policy regulation, the real estate sector's revenue was 33 million yuan, down 46% from the previous year. This period added $28 million in interest income from consolidated microfinance companies. The operating cost for the first half of the year was 976 million yuan, down 2% from the previous year, and the consolidated gross margin increased by 0.5 percentage points to 25.2%. Due to the increase in advertising planning expenses, sales expenses increased 50% year over year; financial expenses increased 20% year over year due to the increase in financing costs; and the three cost rates increased 2.1 percentage points year over year to 17.7% year on year. Investment income guarantees performance. Investment income for the first half of the year was 173.71 million yuan, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year, accounting for nearly 71% of operating profit, continuing to play a role as a guarantee of performance. Among them, revenue from the sale of original shares such as Everbright Securities, Jiaotong Shares, and Huayu Auto received revenue of 11.84 million yuan; stock dividends of 22.19 million yuan; and long-term equity investment income calculated according to the cost method and equity law totaled 21.89 million yuan. Financial equity has great potential for value-added. Xuhui Small Loan can lend a loan amount of 600 million yuan after increasing its capital. Changning Small Loan has already started operations, and Nanjing Small Loan is under construction. Currently, the company holds 51 million shares of Everbright Securities (cost 2.75 yuan/share), 54 million shares of Jiaotong University Onli (cost 1.02 yuan/share), and 145 million shares of Guotai Junan Securities (cost 0.77 yuan/share). There is huge room for value-added, so choosing the timing of sales is very important. Maintain a “prudent increase in holdings” rating. Assuming that the pace of stock sales follows a historical average, the company's 2012-14 EPS is predicted to be 0.28, 0.30, and 0.31 yuan, respectively. The target price is 6 yuan.

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