Sales revenue is generally in line with expectations: the company's 2009 sales revenue was 7.73 billion yuan, slightly higher than our forecast of 7.6 billion yuan. The company's PC business revenue was 6.5 billion yuan (we expect 6.2 billion yuan), up 6.24% year on year. PCB business revenue was 1.2 billion yuan, up 15.36% year on year, below our expectations of 1.36 billion yuan. The gross margin of the PC business fell short of expectations, dragging down the company's performance: The gross profit margin of the company's PCB business was 21.8%, which is basically in line with our expectations of 22%. The PC business had a gross margin of 4.99%, lower than our forecast of 6%. Since the PC business accounts for up to 84% of revenue, too low gross margin is dragging down the company's overall performance. The three fee rates remained stable: in 2009, the three fee rates were 6.77%, which is basically the same as in 2008. Among them, the management expenses ratio was 2.91%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points, the financial expenses ratio was 0.99%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, and the operating expenses ratio was 2.87%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points. The increase in operating expenses is mainly due to the fact that the company's PC business has strengthened publicity and sales efforts in order to buck the market and expand market share. Operating expenses are expected to remain stable over the next two years. The performance in the fourth quarter was relatively good, and the trend of improving performance was evident: the company achieved sales revenue of 2.01 billion dollars in the fourth quarter, an increase of 20% over the previous year, and the comprehensive gross margin reached 10.33%, the best performance in the last six quarters. As a comparison, the company's consolidated gross margin for the third quarter was only 4.56%. The main reason is that the company reduced the average sales price of computers in previous batches going to the countryside in order to maintain PC shipments in a negative market. From what we know, prices for subsequent batches of computers going to the countryside have already risen. Therefore, we believe that the improved performance of the company in the fourth quarter is the result of the combined effects of the two businesses. Combined with our judgment on the PCB industry, we are optimistic about the trend of improving the company's performance in 2010. Main assumptions: We are optimistic about the development trend of the PCB industry in the next two years, and believe that the gross margin of the PCB business will rise steadily. It is estimated that the gross margin of the PCB business from 2010 to 2012 will be 24%, 25%, and 24%, respectively. Regarding the company's PC business, we think the worst period may be over, and with the gradual increase in the share of notebooks, the gross margin of the PC business is expected to rise. The gross margin is expected to be 5.3%, 5.5%, and 5.5% from 2010 to 2012, respectively. Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's 2010-2012 EPS is expected to be 0.12 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.21 yuan respectively. We believe that the company's two business characteristics are different, and price-earnings ratio cannot simply be used for valuation. For specific business splitting and valuation discussions, please refer to our previous report “Fangzheng Technology: PCB continues to expand production, PC bottoms out and rebounds”. We believe that the company's focus is on establishing a reversal trend in performance, while benefiting from investment opportunities in the PCB industry in 2010 and maintaining a “recommended” rating.
【兴业证券】方正科技2009年年报点评:PCB持续向好,PC走出谷底
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