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【兴业证券】大众交通:公交资产剥离提高ROE

興業證券 ·  Apr 7, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Investment points The company's main business transportation is divided into four parts: taxis, buses, car rental, and logistics, in addition to car repair, sales, and real estate. The company recently announced the divestment of all city bus assets to long-controlled bus buses and Pudong buses. The book value of these assets is about 400 million yuan, with an average annual loss of 20 to 30 million yuan. The impact of the divestment on the company is to reduce losses, and the second is that the price paid in cash by the other party can be used for other investments. Therefore, the extent of the impact of this divestment on the company's performance depends on the evaluation price and time for cash payments. Preliminary estimates for increasing the company's EPS are 1-2 cents. The taxi business is the company's main source of profit, contributing one-third of the company's gross profit. The company has 8,758 taxis and is the largest taxi company in Shanghai, accounting for about 20% of the number. In addition, the company has more than 6,000 taxis outside of Shanghai. Due to license restrictions, the company has high entry barriers to this business. Most of the company's car leases are mid-range cars, and target customers are foreign companies and high-star hotels. Under the current economic environment, business has declined to a certain extent. The logistics business is mainly divided into two parts. One is intra-city distribution. The company has more than 1,000 licenses and a profit of 6 million in 2008. The business stability is high, and the profit situation has not changed much; the second is freight forwarding, warehousing and relocation, etc., with a profit of around 9 million in 2008, mainly at Pudong Airport and Songjiang Industrial Park. Profits will decline during the economic downturn. In addition, the company also holds shares in a number of financial enterprises, such as Haitong, Guojun, Shenwan, and Guangda, as well as shares in several urban transportation enterprises such as Transportation Co., Ltd., Buses, and Nanjing Zhongbei, which can increase the company's investment income under favorable conditions in the capital market. The company's EPS for 09-11 is expected to be 0.21, 0.25, and 0.27 yuan, giving it a neutral rating.

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