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【银河证券】大众交通年报:运输地产下降 投资收益大增

中國銀河 ·  Mar 29, 2010 00:00  · Researches

We believe that looking ahead to 2010, due to the impact of the real estate market, the real estate business may decline further; the transportation business will maintain the situation after the reorganization and decline; while the contribution rate of the tourism, logistics and service business to the company's operations will increase dramatically, which is the company's biggest revenue and profit growth point; the transformation of the company's business strategy from transportation to the comprehensive service industry will have a significant impact on the company's operations, while the investment income level of the sharp rise in the stock market in 2009 will be difficult to continue in 2010, so investment returns in 2010 will be relatively large Decline, we expect the decline to be around 40%. We expect the company's revenue in 2010 and 2011 to be 3,643 million yuan and 3.82 billion yuan, net profit of 452 million yuan and 483 million yuan respectively, and earnings per share of 0.29 yuan and 0.31 yuan respectively. We believe that after deducting investment income, the company's performance will show a slight recovery. Currently, the stock price in 2010 and 2011 will reach 48 times and 45 times. According to our valuation of 25 to 40 times PE in 2010, the stock valuation price range is 7.25 yuan to 11.65 yuan, and the current stock price is 13 yuan The above prices are clearly overvalued. Considering the impact of the short-term Shanghai World Expo, we will continue to maintain the “neutral” rating of the company.

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