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【湘财证券】天宸股份:玫瑰盛开,移师南方物流园

湘財證券 ·  Oct 31, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Incident: On October 29, 2010, it was announced that Hetai Company, a subsidiary of the company, obtained a title certificate from Tianchen Rose Square, and completed the housing delivery and transfer procedures with the transferee on October 26, 2010. As of the date of the announcement, Hetai Company has received a total of 683 million yuan in housing purchases, and both parties have also fulfilled their corresponding rights and obligations in accordance with the terms agreed in the Framework Agreement. In the September 17, 2010 report, we considered that there was a great deal of uncertainty about the company's carry-over, and no ratings were given. Since the current development of the company is relatively certain, we have made a new financial forecast and valuation for the company, and given a rating for the first time. Key investment points: According to Rose Square's trading framework, we judge that the Rose Plaza sales price that can be carried forward in 2010 was 1022.25 million yuan; in 2011, it was possible to carry forward 432.75 million yuan. As with the September 17, 2010 report, we are also very careful in judging the level of profit. We believe that the gross margin level of the project is about 55%. The gross profit brought by the project in 2010 was about 560 million yuan. From the detailed planning plan for the Minhang Southern Logistics Park project, the architectural form of the general project was also basically reflected. We assume that the two 30-story hotel apartments are about 90,000 square meters; the SOHO office is about 20,000 square meters; the apartment is about 30,000 square meters, and the commercial area is about 30,000 square meters. According to the type of property, we have revalued the value of the project's land. The value of this portion is around 2,747 billion yuan. The more comparable value of the Southern Logistics Park project is the Meilong Town New Metropolitan Project developed by Greenland Group. The project is also close to the Minhang Southern Logistics Park. It is located at the intersection of Lianhua South Road and Yindu Road in Minhang. It covers an area of 5.43 hectares. The project combines commercial, office buildings, and express hotels. The rent for the project is about 2.8 yuan/day/square meter, which is equivalent to the floor value of the project of about 15,000 yuan per square meter. Assuming that the dividend distribution rate is 15%, Greenland's annual dividend is 0.10 yuan, and the annual profit per share is 0.67 yuan. Based on 15 times PE, the stock price is also around 10 yuan. If calculated on this basis, the company holds shares in Greenland Group with a value of 94 million yuan. Our relatively prudent forecast is that the company's RNAV is 11.36 yuan/share, compared to the stock price of 8.22 yuan/share on October 29, 2010, a discount rate of 27.6%. We also forecast that the company's earnings per share from 2010 to 2012 were 0.65 yuan, 0.41 yuan, and 0.23 yuan, respectively; the corresponding PE was 12.70 times, 20.06 times, and 35.76 times, respectively. Combining the company's revaluation of net assets and PE valuation, we gave an increase in holdings rating for the first time, with a target price of 10 yuan for 6-12 months. Investment risk: risk of continuous interest rate hikes and risk of newly acquired projects.

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