Core ideas:
1. Events.
The operating income of Volkswagen in the first three quarters of 2014 decreased by 8.07% to 1.99 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, while the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies increased by 1.98% to 357 million yuan, or 0.23 yuan per share, which is in line with our expectations.
two。 Our analysis and judgment.
2.1. The business structure is gradually changing.
Since 2014, the company's business and revenue structure has gradually changed. The business income of automobile repair and real estate showed a trend of active and sharp contraction; the tourism service industry benefited from the complete completion of the reconstruction and addition of floors of Volkswagen Building, the optimization of the passenger structure of Volkswagen Airport Hotel, and the introduction of private customized services by Volkswagen Travel. Income and profits increased significantly; car 4S store business expanded rapidly; transportation business (including taxi, rental car, logistics, etc.) declined steadily; micro-loan business expanded in an orderly manner. On the whole, the company takes the initiative to transform and strive for progress in response to changes in the market environment.
2.2. The contribution of small loan business increased.
The 2014 report pointed out that the increase in the company's net profit was mainly due to the increase in profits of microfinance companies. The company's interest income in the third quarter increased by 41.7% year-on-year to 52.83 million yuan, which should still be the main source of profit growth in the third quarter. The small loan company owned by Volkswagen may continue to expand in an orderly manner in the future.
2.3. Industry and market opportunities coexist.
The local market provides the company with better opportunities for transformation and development, such as the development of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and the opening of Disney in 2015; at the same time, the company's original equity investment (Guotai Junan Securities, auspicious Airlines, etc.) may release high potential value in the sustained and healthy development of the securities market.
3. Investment advice: maintain recommendations.
So far, the company has maintained sound earnings management, so we maintain its 2014-2016 EPS forecast of 0.26 yuan 0.26 yuan, corresponding to 31 times PE.
Taking into account the good industry and market opportunities, as well as the company's strategic posture of active transformation and steady progress, we maintain the "recommended" rating of the stock.
4. Risk hint.
Taxi business profits fell too fast; Guotai Junan Securities failed to list smoothly.