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【兴业证券】方正科技:pcb顺势扩产 pc触底回升

興業證券 ·  Jan 10, 2010 08:00  · Researches

The PCB business is the company's main source of profit. It is estimated that in 2009, the company's PC business revenue will be about 6.2 billion yuan, and PCB business revenue will be about 1.36 billion yuan. The PC business has a gross profit of about 6%, and its contribution to the company's net profit after deducting expenses is limited. The PCB business has a gross margin of about 22%, sales gross profit of about 300 million, and gross profit accounting for about 45%, which is the company's main source of profit. The PCB business is being driven by a combination of rising industry prosperity and product structure optimization. In our in-depth report from Ultrasonic Electronics, we have indicated that the PCB industry's prosperity has entered an upward channel. The company's PCB products are mainly HDI and backboards, and sales revenue in 2009 is expected to account for 55% and 25% of PCB business revenue, respectively. The second phase of the Zhuhai HDI project is still being expanded. The HDI production capacity is expected to reach 600,000 square meters in 2011, of which the second-tier HDI production capacity is about 300,000 square meters, and the product structure is expected to be further optimized. There is room for improvement in the PC business. We believe that the domestic PC market is expected to break out of the trough in the next two years. The company is one of the few domestic PC manufacturers with a nationwide marketing network. Measures such as the continued decline in marketing channels, the expansion of PC options and fee-based after-sales service, and the strengthening of the notebook business will contribute to the development of the company's PC business. Profit forecasts and valuations. We have split the calculation of the company's PCB business. The estimated EPS for the PCB business in 2009-2011 is 0.07, 0.10, and 0.14 yuan, respectively, while the company's overall EPS is 0.09, 0.13, and 0.19 yuan. We believe it is appropriate to use the market sales ratio valuation method for the company's PC business. We have determined that the market value of the PC business in 2010 was about 3.32 billion yuan, corresponding to a value of 1.93 yuan per share. The valuation range for the company's PCB business is 3-3.3 yuan based on a price-earnings ratio of 30 times in 2010. Overall, we believe that the company's reasonable valuation range is 4.93-5.23 yuan, giving it a “recommended” rating for the first time.

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