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【海通证券】方正科技(600601):PCB 成增长主要动力

海通證券 ·  Apr 9, 2007 00:00  · Researches

  The comprehensive gross margin of the company's products reached 7.31% in 2006, the same as in 2005. Among them, the gross margin of both the PC and PCB businesses declined, but the increase in the share of PCBs contained the decline in overall gross margin. We believe that the main reason for the decline in the company's PC and PCB gross margin is the decline in product prices. As the concentration of the PC industry tends to increase, the company's current competitive position can guarantee that its gross margin will not decline drastically in the next few years. As the share of HDI products with high gross margins in the PCB business continues to rise, we expect the gross margin of the company's PCB business to increase significantly in the next few years, thus driving an increase in overall gross margin. It should be pointed out that the large investment in allotment capital in 2007 will greatly increase depreciation expenses, and it is difficult for HDI sales to maintain the same growth rate during the year, so the increase in the gross margin of the PCB business is limited. Cost control remains in effect. Although the company's expense ratio increased by about 0.1 percentage points during 2006, we noticed that its operating expenses and management expenses both increased by about 9% year-on-year, indicating that the slight increase in the cost rate was mainly due to slow PC sales growth, and the company's cost control was still effective. Considering that sales are limited in the short term due to the investment of allotment capital and the increasing share of the PCB business, the company's expenses ratio will rise steadily over the next few years. Exposes less financial risk. The company's operating cash flow in 2006 reached 0.30 yuan per share, far higher than EPS. The availability of allotment capital will ease the tight cash flow situation caused by HDI investment, reduce the company's financial expenses, and mean that the company faces less financial risk. Maintain a “neutral” rating. Assuming that the company's equity capital investment releases 25%, 75%, and 100% of its additional production capacity from 2007 to 2009, we expect the company's EPS from 2007 to 2009 to be 0.16 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.28 yuan, respectively. Given that the domestic PC industry is maturing and there is still uncertainty about the release of the company's PCB production capacity, we maintain a “neutral” investment rating, with a target price of 7.5 yuan for 6 months. Major uncertainties. Competition in the PC industry remains intense; HDI production may be slower than expected.

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