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【南京证券】龙溪股份:强劲复苏的轴承,顺势而为的龙溪

南京證券 ·  Apr 22, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Benefiting from a recovery in exports, the main business is booming. It is expected that the company will break out of the trough starting at the end of 2009. Judging from domestic bearing production and export volume, the bearing industry is currently undergoing a strong recovery. Strong domestic automobile and construction machinery production and sales, especially strong export recovery, will continue to drive the company. The company is more flexible with respect to exports. It is expected that, driven by domestic sales and export recovery, as well as changes in the regional structure of product sales, will boost revenue and gross margin levels. The commissioning of the special joint bearing project in 2011 will bring new growth points. After delivery of the special joint bearing project developed by the company and China Aviation Group, Longxi Co., Ltd. will add 2.4 million sets of special joint bearings every year, increase sales revenue by 360 million yuan, and increase total profit of 132 million yuan. The real harvest began in 2011. There are expectations of equity transfers and restructuring. The company holds 30.51 million shares of Societe Generale Securities, accounting for 1.58% of the total share capital of Societe Generale Securities. It is estimated that the price per share of Societe Generale Securities will be about 14.5 yuan after the diluted listing, which will increase by 1.47 yuan per share. Since Societe Generale has not yet been listed, we have discounted it by 10%, which corresponds to an increase of 1.33 yuan per share. Investment strategies. It is estimated that the closing price of Longxi Co., Ltd.'s 09-11 EPS will be 0.26, 0.43, 0.63, and 12.70 yuan on April 21, respectively. After deducting the value of shares in Societe Generale Securities, the 10-year PE corresponding to the 10-year main business is (12.70-1.33) /0.43 = 26.44 times. Considering the huge increase in the company's profit in 11 years, as well as the possibility of subsequent restructuring, we will give Longxi Co., Ltd. the Haixi concept speculation opportunity brought about by the signing of the ECFA. We will give Longxi Co., Ltd. the 10-year main business 35 times P/E, and the target price 0.43 *35+1.33=16.38 yuan Give it a “Recommended” rating.

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