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【国泰君安】惠泉啤酒:经济回暖促未来业绩增长

國泰君安 ·  Mar 1, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company's sales volume increased steadily in 2009, and the rise in the price of tonnes of alcohol contributed to an increase in gross margin. It is expected that sales volume and tonne alcohol prices will continue to rise in 2010, driving the company's performance to grow rapidly. Investment highlights: Huiquan Brewery's operating income in 2009 was 1,088 million yuan, up 6.48% year on year, total profit was 99 million yuan, up 14.15% year on year, net profit attributable to parent company was 77 million yuan, up 12.45% year on year, and EPS was 0.31 yuan. It is proposed to distribute $1.5 for every 10 shares. Overcoming the unfavorable economic environment, sales volume maintained steady growth. Fujian Province, the main sales area for the company's products, is located in an economically developed coastal region. The economic slowdown that began in mid-2008 had a negative impact on its beer sales, but through optimizing the product structure and strengthening marketing, the company's 2009 sales volume still reached 533,800 kiloliters, achieving a year-on-year increase of 4.65%. It is expected that as the economy recovers in 2010, the company's beer sales in 2010 will increase 10% year over year. Product structure optimization boosts the price of tonnes of alcohol and raises the company's profit level. In 2009, the company continued to optimize its product structure, and sales of high-end, low-concentration, and small-volume products rose sharply. Among them, cans increased 29% over 2008, pure draft beer increased 8%, the average concentration of products dropped from 7.45 degrees to 7.39 degrees, and the price of tonnes of alcohol also rose from 1968 yuan/ton to 2019 yuan/ton. The rise in tonnes of alcohol prices boosted the company's gross margin by 1.15 percent. We expect that the company's product structure will continue to improve in 2010, and as barley prices fall, there is a possibility that the cost of tonnes of alcohol will decrease in 2010, and gross margin will continue to rise. The company's operating efficiency has improved, the sales expense ratio has remained stable, and the management expense ratio has declined. In 2009, the company strengthened internal control and improved operating efficiency. The sales expense ratio of 6.59% was basically the same as in 2008, and the management expense ratio was 5.26%, down 0.6 percentage points from 2008. The company's operations are relatively stable, and it is expected that the cost rate will continue to maintain a steady downward trend in the next few years. Profit forecasts and investment advice. Benefiting from the economic recovery and steady growth of Fujian Province, it is expected that the company's beer sales and tonnes of alcohol prices will continue to rise in the next few years. The forecast EPS for 2010-2012 is 0.42,0.53 and 0.65 yuan, respectively. Referring to the industry level, it gave it a price-earnings ratio of 30 times that of 2010, with a target price of 13 yuan, and a rating of prudent increase in holdings.

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