The company's sales revenue increased by 6.48% in 2009, which is lower than the average growth level of the industry of 10.4%. The slow growth in sales of the company and even the industry has been affected, firstly, by the slowdown in economic growth, and second, due to the slowdown in domestic beer consumption growth in recent years. The company's main markets are in Fujian and southeast coastal regions. The sales contribution of the Fujian market and the foreign port market is roughly 7:3. Among them, the market in Fujian province was hit hard by the economic crisis and achieved revenue of 800 million yuan, a decrease of 4.46% over the previous year; outside Fujian province, 288 million yuan, an increase of 57.71% over the previous year. Market growth outside the province had a significant impact on the company's sales. The company's profitability has improved, and the trend of high-end development is remarkable. In 2009, the company's product structure was further optimized: sales of high-end, low-concentration, and small-volume products continued to rise sharply. Among them, sales of cans increased 29% over 2008, pure draft beer increased 8%, the average concentration of products fell to 7.39° from 7.45° in 2008, the average volume dropped by 14ml/bottle, and the average sales price of tonnes of alcohol increased by 144 yuan over the same period last year. The high-end structure and the increase in the price of tonnes of alcohol have increased the gross profit margin of the company's products. In 2009, the gross margin of the company's products reached 32.4% and the net profit margin reached 7.93%, an increase over the previous year. China's beer industry is facing adverse factors such as large fluctuations in barley costs, a slowdown in beer consumption growth, and low price bidding in the industry. In order to counter these adverse factors, the following trends have emerged in the development of China's beer industry: first, exploring regional markets with weak beer consumption, which can be compared to “beer going to the countryside”. This should be promoted along with the increase in per capita income in underdeveloped regions, and is also one of the ways to promote the growth of beer consumption; second, the trend of high-end, low, and individualized beer consumption; third, the trend of industrial concentration; and fourth, the use of foreign investment: enterprises rely on foreign brand backgrounds and management experience to win in the changing landscape of the beer industry. In 2010, the company first sought volume growth: “The total volume of beer produced and sold increased by 10% from 2009”; the second was to pursue continuous improvement in profitability: “The company should aim for price increases, focus on the transformation of beer consumption trends, pay attention to the individual needs of customers, vigorously develop and produce new varieties with real differentiation and high added value, enrich the high-end product range, and enhance product profit margins. It is necessary to concentrate resources to do a good job in high-end beer, increase sales of high-grade varieties, and promote the transformation of main products from mid-range to mid-high grade, thereby increasing the sales price of tonnes of alcohol, increasing gross profit margin, and avoiding competition at low prices.” 2010 risk: risk of declining profitability. Reasons: 1. The situation where supply exceeds demand in the company's main sales regions will persist for a long time, and the situation of low price competition in the industry will not change; 2. The company's main raw material is imported barley, and the recent rebound in international barley prices has affected the company's profit in 2010. Profit forecast: The company is a beer enterprise located in the southeast coastal region. It has a certain market monopoly in the port, as well as brand and quality advantages. The company's earnings per share in 2010 and 2011 are estimated to be 0.43 yuan and 0.58 yuan, and the corresponding price-earnings ratios are 26.47 times and 19.62 times. It has a valuation advantage and gives it a “buy” investment rating.
【中原证券】惠泉啤酒2009年年报点评:收入实现增长,盈利能力提升
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