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【天相投资】龙溪股份:轴承业绩优异,未来值得期待

天相投資 ·  Apr 15, 2011 00:00  · Researches

From January to December 2010, the company achieved operating income of 671 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%; operating profit of 96.2 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.4%; and net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 93.04 million yuan, an increase of 28.6% year-on-year. Basic earnings per share are $0.31. Profit distribution plan: 1 yuan in cash for every 10 shares (tax included). Bearings have excellent performance, and the future is worth looking forward to. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue from bearing business of 490 million yuan, an increase of 36.17% over the previous year, and a slight decrease in gross margin of 0.71 percentage points. Last year, major downstream construction machinery, heavy trucks, etc. all achieved rapid growth, which boosted the company's bearing performance. Judging from sales of construction machinery and heavy trucks from January to February 2011, downstream demand is expected to continue to be strong in 2011. Furthermore, the company's bearing exports recovered, achieving exports of 153 million yuan in 2011, an increase of 71.86% over the previous year. Considering that the recovery of the global economy is better than last year, exports are expected to continue to rise. Taking into account the improvement of the industry and the fact that the “Special Joint Bearing Technology Transformation Project” has begun to contribute to performance, we believe that the company's bearing business will continue to grow rapidly in 2011 and 2012. The gear and transmission business is recovering. During the reporting period, the company achieved gear and transmission revenue of 152 million yuan, an increase of 97.06% over the previous year; gross margin increased sharply by 8.63 percentage points to 9.88%, the best level in recent years. The company's gears and transmissions are mainly supplied with Xiagong loaders. The rapid increase of 57% of Xiagong loaders over the same period last year is the main reason for the recovery in performance. Considering the positive production and operation goals of Xiagong in 2011, it is expected that this part of the company's business recovery process will continue. Expense rate control is better. During the reporting period, the company's period expenses were well controlled. The cost rate for the period decreased by 1.05 percentage points to 13.02% compared to the same period last year. Mainly, management efficiency improved, and the management expense ratio dropped sharply by 1.7 percentage points over the same period last year. The sales expense ratio increased by 0.84 percentage points over the same period last year due to increased sales efforts. Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's EPS for 2011-2013 to be 0.38 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.63 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 13.66 yuan on April 14, the corresponding dynamic PE is 36 times, 27 times, and 22 times, respectively, maintaining the company's “increased holdings” investment rating. Risk warning: 1) The risk of a decline in demand in major downstream markets such as heavy vehicles and construction machinery. 2) The risk of a slow recovery in international markets. 3) The risk of a sharp rise in raw material prices.

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