Performance declined 20%. From January to June 2010, the company completed a total sales volume of 189,400 kiloliters of beer, a decrease of 22.25% over the same period last year; achieved main business revenue of 439 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.84%; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 26.2 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.45%; realized net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring profit and loss of 2,512 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.40%; and achieved an EPS of 0.105 yuan (0.13 yuan in the same period last year), a year-on-year decrease of 19.23%. Looking at a single quarter, the first quarter of 2010 achieved earnings of 0.01 yuan per share, the same as the same period last year; the second quarter of 2010 achieved earnings of 0.09 yuan per share, a year-on-year decrease of 22.16% (the second quarter of 2009 achieved earnings of 0.11 yuan per share, the same as the previous year). The growth rate of beer production across the country slowed in the first half of 2010. In the first half of 2010, China's beer production reached 21.23 million kiloliters, an increase of 0.95% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was far lower than 7.34% in the same period last year. Among them, beer production in June was 4.96 million kiloliters, an increase of 17.46% over the previous month and an increase of 1.85% over the previous year. The main reason for the slowdown in the growth rate of domestic beer production in the first half of this year is that it was introduced this year, and temperatures in most parts of the country were significantly lower than in previous years, which led to a weakening in beer consumption. Considering stimulus factors such as the World Cup and the World Expo, we believe that beer sales will gradually increase in the third quarter. However, considering the low growth rate of the industry this year and the previous year, it is expected that the sales growth rate of the beer industry will remain low throughout the year. Profit forecast and investment rating: The valuation levels of the 2010-2011 EPS are expected to be 0.35 yuan and 0.42 yuan respectively for the current stock price (11.06 yuan) to be 32x and 26x, respectively. However, the average valuation levels of the industry (excluding Chongqing Beer, since the valuation given to the company by the market included the vaccine business) in the 2010—2011 average valuation levels were 26x and 22x, respectively. The company's valuation is significantly higher than the industry average. Therefore, the company was given a “neutral” investment rating.
【国元证券】惠泉啤酒:啤酒—销量下滑拖累业绩
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