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【民族证券】惠泉啤酒:墙内开花墙外香,竞争压力加大

民族證券 ·  Feb 25, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The unit price of the product rose slightly, but it was below the industry average. In 2009, the unit price of the company's products rose 2.58% year on year, slightly below the industry average (3.73%). The percentage of sales plan completed rose slightly, but remained below the industry average. In 2009, 533,800 kiloliters of beer were sold, an increase of 4.65% over the previous year, lower than the industry average of 2.44 percentage points; 95% of the plan at the beginning of the year was completed, an increase of 4 percentage points over the previous year. Market share within the province declined slightly, and markets outside the province recovered rapidly. In 2009, Fujian beer production fell 3.41% year on year, and the company's revenue in the province fell 4.46% (equivalent to a decline in sales volume of nearly 7 percentage points); the revenue in the market outside the province was 288 million yuan, up 57.71% year on year, far higher than Jiangxi, the main market outside the province (production increased by 22.32% year on year). The profit margin on the company's net assets has increased by nearly 0.5 percentage points and has been over 6% for two consecutive years. We look forward to the introduction of an equity incentive plan. The EPS for 2010, 2011, and 2012 is estimated to be 0.35 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.42 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 11.52 yuan on February 24, the dynamic price-earnings ratios for 10, 11, and 12 years are 32.91 times, 30.44 times, and 27.21 times, respectively. The valuations are basically reasonable, maintaining a “careful recommendation” rating.

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