share_log

【申银万国】江西长运:业绩符合预期,维持增持评级

申萬宏源 ·  Aug 25, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company's interim results are in line with expectations. The company achieved operating income of 625 million yuan and net profit of 58 million yuan in the first half of 2010, with year-on-year increases of 27.03% and 20.59%, respectively, and earnings of 0.31 yuan per share; generally in line with expectations (our forecast for the company's EPS report is 0.32 yuan). Benefiting from the high economic boom, the road passenger transport business is growing rapidly. The road passenger transport business achieved revenue of 478 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 29% over the previous year, accounting for more than 75% of revenue and 80% of gross profit, which is still the main source of performance. With the overall economic boom rising in the first half of the year, the country's road passenger traffic turnover growth rate reached about 10%; the company is located in Jiangxi Province, where GDP growth is high, and its business volume is growing faster than the national average. (1) In the first half of the year, the company completed a road passenger traffic volume of 1984 million passengers and a passenger turnover of 2,269 million kilometers, up 24% and 15% year-on-year respectively; (2) The average distance was 114 kilometers, down 7% year on year. The ever-shortening distance reflects the trend that road passenger transport is gradually shifting to short hauls in increasingly intense railway competition (in particular, newly acquired second-tier passenger transport companies such as Ji'an and Pingxiang mainly focus on short-distance transportation within the province); (3) The average ticket price rose 12%, reflecting the positive impact of economic recovery on pricing, and on the other hand, contract management responsibility Reimplement It has also effectively boosted the company's profits. The sharp rise in fuel costs has led to a general decline in the gross margin of the road business, and non-recurring profits and losses have made up for it. As domestic diesel retail prices rose more than 30% year on year in the first half of the year, the gross margin of the company's road passenger transport and freight business both declined. Among them, the gross margin of the passenger transport business decreased by 2.7 percentage points, and the gross margin of the freight business decreased by 25 percentage points. However, passenger transport subsidies and used car disposal revenue doubled year-on-year in the first half of the year, mitigating the negative impact of declining gross profit to a certain extent. Maintain profit forecasts and increase ratings. We maintain our 10-12 year profit forecasts of 0.60, 0.65, and 0.73 yuan, with dynamic price-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 14 times, respectively; benefiting from regional economic development, the company's future performance will maintain steady growth; continued cross-regional acquisitions will bring growth to the company beyond expectations; and we still maintain an increase in the company's holdings rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment