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【渤海证券】天威保变:业绩低于多晶硅业务步入收获期,输配电业务仍处于谷底

渤海證券 ·  Apr 21, 2011 00:00  · Researches

EPS for the first quarter was 0.12 yuan. Non-recurring income was the main source of profit. The company achieved sales revenue of 1,535 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2011, a decrease of 15.21% over the previous year, and net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 144 million yuan, a decrease of 12.08% over the previous year, achieving basic earnings per share of 0.12 yuan. The company's net profit was about 167 million yuan, of which about 104 million yuan came from government subsidies and fair value change income from transactional financial assets, accounting for about 62.19%. The transformer business lost money. The first half of the year was a slump. The company's transformer business was in a state of loss in the first quarter. The main reason was that the low price won the bid last year and the rise in raw material prices led to rising costs. At present, power grid investment in the first quarter is not optimistic. There are still few new orders from the company, and improvements are expected in the second quarter. We believe that the transformer business will bottom out in the middle of the year. In the second half of the year, with the release of power grid investment projects and price improvements, the transformer business will all pick up. The polysilicon business is operating normally, and the profit contribution is large. Judging from the company's investment income in joint ventures and joint ventures, the year-on-year increase is about 24 million yuan. Considering the decline in the photovoltaic market in the first quarter of this year, Tianwei Yingli's investment income is expected to decrease. Therefore, it is estimated that Ledian Tianwei may have contributed more than 30 million yuan in investment income. Compared with Ledian Tianwei, Sichuan silicon industry is similar in scale and cost, so we expect its profit contribution to more than 60 million yuan. Currently, the company plans to carry out technical reforms on Ledian Tianwei and Tianwei's silicon industry. It is conservatively estimated that production this year and next two years will reach 2,400 tons and 3,000 tons, respectively. Thin film business profit/loss balance. The wind power business has yet to break through the thin-film battery market development in the first quarter to be more effective. Tianwei Film has basically achieved break-even. Currently, Tianwei Film's thin-film battery conversion efficiency is about 7.2%. It is expected that after the technical reform is completed in May, it will increase to more than 9%, and the scale will reach about 75MW. Optimistic estimates suggest that this year it will achieve break-even. The wind power business is still losing money and continues to drag down the main business. Insufficient operating performance is a major obstacle to wind power development. In the future, the company will explore the market mainly by selling to group companies or cooperating with power generation groups to build wind farms. The allotment of shares has been completed. Focus on the subsequent group asset injection company's allotment of shares has been successfully completed recently, and the net capital raised has reached about 2.4 billion yuan. After the company's allotment of shares is completed, the settlement of related transactions between the group and the company will be expedited, and the related asset injection schedule will get closer and closer. Profit forecast and investment rating Due to uncertainty about polysilicon technology reform to increase production capacity, we lowered the profit forecast for the 2012 polysilicon business. We expect the company's 2011-2012 EPS to be 0.70 yuan and 1.04 yuan respectively. Considering that the polysilicon business may exceed expectations and future asset injections, according to the company's 2012 PE valuation 30 times, the company's target price is 31.23 yuan, giving it a “highly recommended” rating.

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