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【长城证券】惠泉啤酒调研报告:深耕福建市场,江西市场打开成长空间

長城證券 ·  Mar 23, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Company profile: Huiquan Brewery was listed in 2003, and in 2004, Yanjing Brewery was transferred through an agreement to become the company's largest shareholder. Currently, the shareholding ratio is 50.03%. In Yanjing Brewery's “1+3” structure, it is positioned as a strong regional brand along the southeast coast. Currently, the annual production capacity is 700,000 kiloliters, and the sales area is mainly Fujian and Jiangxi, covering Anhui, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places. The easing of competition and the upgrading of consumption have driven the price of tonnes of alcohol to rise year by year, and comprehensive budget management cost control has been effective: since 2008, with the easing of competition, driven by small bottling and product upgrades, the price of tonnes of alcohol has risen year by year. We believe that with the level of economic development and per capita income in the Fujian market, the consumption upgrade will drive the price of tonnes of Huiquan beer into a long-term upward channel. In recent years, the company has adopted technological restructuring, potential consumption reduction, and comprehensive budget management. The cost control effect of tons of alcohol is obvious, and the gross profit of tons of alcohol and the net profit of tons of alcohol have increased year by year. The Fujian beer market has huge consumption potential: the climate of Fujian province is hot, local residents have a taste for wine, and the Fujian beer market has attracted the entry of major beer groups due to its good profit margins. Fujian Province has been hit hard by this economic crisis. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of beer sales in 2009 was -3.41%. As the economy recovers, beer consumption in Fujian Province should have a process of recovery in consumption. The Jiangxi market has brought new space for epitaxial development: since 2005, the growth rate of beer sales in the Jiangxi market has far surpassed that of the whole country, and the revenue and profit of the subsidiary in Fuzhou, Jiangxi has increased markedly since it was put into operation in 2005. The company's main competitor's market share plummeted in the Jiangxi market due to mistakes in site selection, and management changed in October 2009. This provided a rare opportunity for Huiquan to expand its base and further invade the Nanchang market. Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's main sales regions were greatly adversely affected by the economic crisis in 2009, and with the economic recovery of these regions, there will be a considerable increase in the company's sales volume in 10 years. Currently, the company's subsidiary in Jiangxi is doing well, and there is little market space left over due to obvious mistakes made by competitors. The expansion of the Jiangxi market is worth looking forward to. The 2010 and 2011 EPS were 0.44 and 0.58, respectively, and the corresponding PE was 27.6 and 21.1 times, respectively, giving the company a recommended investment rating.

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