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【天相投资】惠泉啤酒:二季度营收继续下滑

天相投資 ·  Jul 20, 2010 00:00  · Researches

From January to June 2009, the company achieved operating income of 443 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.89%, operating profit of 31.56 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.47%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 26.2 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.45%, and an income of 0.1 yuan per share. Among them, the second quarter achieved operating income of 257 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.94%, operating profit of 27.16 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 22.66 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.17% over the previous year, achieving earnings of 0.09 yuan per share. The company's revenue continues to decline. The company's revenue from January to June 2010 fell 19.89 percentage points year on year. Among them, in the second quarter, the company's revenue fell 22.94 percentage points year on year, exceeding the decline by 7.73 percentage points in the first quarter. Judging from the main business, the 20.19% year-on-year decline in the company's beer revenue was the main reason for the decline in the company's revenue. The main reasons for the decline in the company's beer sales revenue are: (1) the main markets, Fujian and southern Gannan, were affected by heavy rain and low temperatures, which curbed beer consumption, and overall beer market performance was weak; (2) strict drunken driving, which had a large impact on beer sales in the catering channel; (3) Tsing Beer and Xuejin carried out exclusive store operations and large prize promotions, which further squeezed the company's market share, leading to a marked decline in the company's beer sales in the first half of the year. The company will continue to enjoy the cost advantages of low barley prices. The company procures barley and other raw materials for brewing from the majority shareholder, Yanjing Beer Group, and maintains a long-term and stable supply relationship with the Yin Beer Group. Coupled with the sufficient supply of imported barley, barley prices will continue to operate in a positive position. Low-priced barley will bring cost advantages to the company and help the company promote product structure improvement. The marketing model reform is expected to bring about steady growth. The company learned from the advanced marketing experience of Liquan, Guangxi, created a marketing model with Huiquan characteristics, and increased market coverage and share in various regions, which is expected to bring steady growth to the company. At the same time, we will enrich the range of high-grade products, gradually increase sales of high-grade products, and raise the company's profit level. Earnings forecasts and ratings. We expect EPS for 2010-2012 to be 0.33 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.48 yuan respectively. Based on the current company stock price of 11.06 yuan, the corresponding dynamic PE is 33X, 28X, and 23X, respectively, maintaining a “neutral” rating. Risk warning. (1) The risk of intense competition in the Fujian market; (2) the risk of a downturn in the general market.

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