Investment points: Earnings per share were 0.39 yuan, and the performance was basically in line with expectations. In the first half of the year, the company achieved operating income of 962 million yuan, an increase of 53.86% over the previous year, operating profit of 111 million yuan, an increase of 40.58% over the previous year, and net profit of 72.8548 million yuan, an increase of 26.28% over the previous year. Earnings per share were 0.39 yuan, which is basically in line with expectations (our forecast is 0.38 yuan). The rapid increase in passenger traffic has led to an increase in the company's performance. In the first half of 2011, the company's passenger traffic volume reached 30.697 million people, an increase of 51.54% over the previous year, and the completed passenger turnover reached 3.191 billion kilometers, an increase of 40.64% over the previous year. In the first half of the year, the road bus passenger transport business had revenue of 697 million yuan, an increase of 45.87% over the previous year, accounting for 78% of total revenue and 93% of operating profit. It is still the company's main business. The average passenger fare in the first half of the year was 0.218 yuan/passer/km, an increase of 3.72% over the previous year, but the average distance fell to 106.1 kilometers, a decrease of 7.2%. The main reasons are: 1) competition among road and rail modes of transportation is becoming increasingly intense, and road transport is gradually shifting to short distances; 2) the revenue growth rate of second-tier passenger transport companies such as Ji'an and Pingxiang, which mainly focus on short-distance transportation within the province, was significantly higher than that of other subsidiaries, thus shortening the average distance. Costs are growing faster than revenue, and operating profit margins of various businesses have declined. In the first half of the year, domestic CPI remained at a high level and monetary policy was tightened, and the company faced greater cost pressure. The main symptoms were: 1) The upward pressure on operating costs was high, and the main costs of fuel, labor, materials, etc. all rose sharply. The main business costs increased 60% year on year, higher than the revenue growth rate by about 4.5 percentage points, thereby eroding the operating profit margins of various businesses. The automobile passenger transport business, which accounts for the highest revenue, fell 1.3 percentage points; 2) The period expenses rose 54% year on year, mainly because the company strengthened marketing to cope with increasingly intense market competition and the increase in management expenses brought about by promoting management integration and business integration of mergers and acquisitions. Maintain profit forecasts and stock buildup ratings. Benefiting from the development of the regional economy and continued cross-regional acquisitions, the company's future performance will maintain steady growth. We expect the company's EPS for 2011-2013 to be 0.75, 0.84, and 0.91 yuan, respectively, and the dynamic PE corresponding to the current stock price will be 13.8 times, 12.4 times and 11.3 times, maintaining the increase in holdings rating.
【申银万国证券】江西长运中报点评:业绩符合预期,客运量快速增长带动公司业绩提升
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