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【申银万国证券】江西长运:业绩基本符合预期,关注非公开增发进展

申萬宏源 ·  Mar 19, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Earnings per share were 0.68 yuan, which is generally in line with expectations. The company achieved operating income of 1,917 million yuan in 2011, an increase of 54.21% over the previous year; achieved operating profit of 139 million yuan, an increase of 4.98% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 126 million yuan, an increase of 10.31% over the previous year; and earnings per share of 0.68 yuan, which is basically in line with expectations. The company's dividend plan for 2011 is to distribute a cash dividend of 1.80 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 26.4%. The high revenue growth was mainly due to the merger of Shangrao and Poyang Motor Transport Company. Costs rose faster than revenue, leading to a 4.2 percent decline in gross margin. The company's high revenue growth was due to the acquisition and merger of shares in Shangrao Motor Transport Group and Poyang County Coach Transport Company. The annual revenue of Shangrao Auto Transport reached 410 million yuan, accounting for 21% of total revenue. Excluding the effects of mergers and acquisitions, the company's revenue growth rate was 17% under the original caliber. In terms of profitability, the gross margin of Shangrao Group is only 12.27%, which is lower than the company's level of 18.89%. Excluding the effects of mergers, the company's gross margin was 20.19%, so Shangrao Auto Transport reduced the company's gross margin by about 1.3 points. In addition to asset purchases, the rapid rise in expenses for fuel, labor, and materials is another reason for the decline in gross margin. Operating costs for the whole year increased by 62.57%, which is 8 percentage points higher than revenue, and the gross margin of various businesses declined by 2-5 percentage points. Due to a 7% increase in gasoline and diesel prices from March 20, 2012, we expect cost pressure to remain in 2012, and the gross margin of the automobile passenger transport and cargo transportation business is at risk of further decline. The share of the automobile passenger transport business has declined further, the distance of transportation has declined slightly, and ticket prices have risen slightly. The passenger car business accounted for 67% of total revenue, down 4 percentage points from the previous year. The company's annual passenger traffic volume was 54.932,700, an increase of 42% over the previous year. Among them, the average ticket price increased 10% year on year, but freight distance fell 7.3% year on year. The main reasons for the decline in transportation distance are: 1) competition among road and rail modes of transportation is becoming increasingly intense, and road transportation is gradually shifting to short hauls; 2) the revenue growth rate of second-tier passenger transport companies such as Ji'an and Pingxiang, which mainly focus on short-distance transportation within the province, is significantly higher than that of other subsidiaries, thus shortening the average distance of transportation. We expect this year's passenger traffic to rise 15% year on year, ticket prices to rise 5%, and the freight range will still decline slightly. Maintain profit forecasts and neutral ratings. The company launched a non-public stock offering in 2011, with an issue price of no less than 9.26 yuan and raising capital of no more than 480 million yuan, mainly for passenger transport hub construction projects and logistics center construction projects. Without considering the impact of additional issuance, we expect the 2012-2014 EPS to be 0.73, 0.79, and 0.85 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 14, 13, and 12 times, maintaining a neutral rating.

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