Forecast and suggestion: the company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.2,0.28 and 0.4 yuan respectively from 2012 to 2014. The current stock price is 11.59 yuan, the valuation is not cheap, considering that the company has been valued at more than 40 times for a long time, and its wine business will continue to grow at more than 40% in the next few years, it will be given a "neutral" rating of 2013 dynamic PE40 times and a target price of 11.33 yuan.

The main risk tips are: (1) macroeconomic fluctuations lead to shrinking consumer demand in the high-end wine industry, at the same time, increased competitive pressure in the industry led to the company's development of high-end wine market; (2) the company's barley malt business income below the break-even point led to losses dragging down the development of the main wine industry; (3) food safety issues.