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【国信证券】江西长运2009年报点评:业绩符合预期,关注外延扩张新突破

國信證券 ·  Apr 29, 2010 00:00  · Researches

EPS is 0.49 yuan. The performance is basically in line with expectations that the company achieved operating income of 990 million yuan in 2009, up 10.9% year on year, of which road passenger revenue was 743 million yuan, up 12.5% year on year; net profit was 9185 million yuan, up 43% year on year, and EPS was 0.49 yuan, which is basically in line with our previous expectations of 0.48 yuan. The reason for the rapid increase in the company's performance was the steady increase in passenger transport revenue and a sharp drop in financial expenses. Net profit for Q1 in '10 increased 24% year on year, and EPS was 0.22 yuan. The road passenger transport business grew 9.8% in '09, and the growth in the first quarter of '10 accelerated. The road passenger transport business grew by 12.5% year on year in '09. Among them, the Ji'an and Fuzhou companies grew rapidly, reaching 30% and 75% respectively. The average distance of the company's passenger transport business declined, from 146 kilometers in 2008 to 122 kilometers, reflecting an increase in the proportion of the company's short- and medium-distance travelers. In the first quarter of 2010, the company's revenue increased by 29.5%, and the growth rate accelerated markedly. We believe that in addition to the newly acquired Pingxiang Passenger Transport Company, which contributed an increase of about 10%, the increase in residents' travel demand brought about by the strong recovery of the regional economy and factors such as the company's increase in the share of public buses and exploiting the growth potential of existing business were important reasons for the increase in the growth rate. Costs rose faster than expected, and financial expenses fell sharply. In 2009, the company's passenger transportation business costs increased 14% year on year, faster than the 12.5% revenue growth rate, leading to a decline in gross margin of 1 percentage point to 28.8%. In the context of benefiting from fuel tax and fee reforms, the cost growth rate has greatly exceeded expectations. We think it may be due to increased labor, fuel costs, and some anticipated expenses. Financial expenses fell by nearly 10 million yuan in 2009, by 36%, mainly due to lower interest rates and lower debt levels. Risk warning According to the announcement, the company's board of directors will change, and the core management team may undergo important changes. The gradual improvement of the high-speed rail network may have a certain impact on the company's passenger transport business. Endogenous growth is stable, focus on new breakthroughs in epitaxial expansion, and maintain that the main business of the “careful recommendation” investment rating company will maintain steady growth in the future. The acquisition of Pingxiang Passenger Transport Company is a new breakthrough in the company's epitaxial expansion. We believe that high-quality passenger transport assets in Ganzhou, Jiujiang and neighboring central provinces in the province will be the target of mergers and acquisitions that the company will actively seek in the future. The company's 10-11 EPS is expected to be 0.56 yuan (maintenance, 22.2X) and 0.63 yuan (up 0.01 yuan, 19.7X), respectively. The current valuation is basically reasonable, maintaining a “prudent recommendation” investment rating, and new developments in epitaxial expansion will act as a catalyst for stock price performance.

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