The wine business increased steadily, but it fell short of our expectations that the company's wine business increased steadily in the first half of '11, achieving revenue of 121 million yuan, up 15.63% year on year, lower than our expectations; the gross margin of the wine business was 62.90%, down 4 percentage points year on year, mainly due to increased labor and other costs, and product prices are expected to rise steadily in the second half of the year due to the lack of significant increase in product prices during the market expansion period. The overseas market expanded rapidly, and the network layout effect showed that in the first half of the year, while consolidating the local market, the company focused on market expansion and layout outside the province; the company's three wine sales subsidiaries, Wuwei, Zhangye, and Shaanxi, saw a sharp year-on-year increase in revenue, from 5.42 million yuan in the same period last year to 26 million yuan this year, and the effects of the market layout outside the province are gradually opening up. The loss reduction in the barley malt business exceeded expectations, and gross profit changed to a slight increase of 1.05% in the first half of the year, but gross margin increased by 15 percentage points year on year, and gross profit changed from negative to positive year, increasing by nearly 5 million yuan, making the company's net profit growth rate higher than the revenue growth rate in the first half of the year; it is expected that the company's barley malt business loss reduction target (5 million yuan) will be achieved (even expected to reduce the loss by 10 million yuan). Profit forecasts were lowered slightly, maintaining the “recommended” rating. The company's wine business fell short of our expectations in the first half of the year. The company's EPS for 11-13 was lowered to 0.20 yuan, 0.33 yuan, and 0.46 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current PE price of 54.1 times, 33.5 times, and 23.8 times, respectively. Considering that the company's wine business is currently in the take-off stage, future growth is worth looking forward to, and maintaining the “recommended” rating. Risk warning: Imported barley prices fall; macroeconomic downside risk.
【国联证券】莫高股半年报点评:利润增速超预期,省外扩张效果初现
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