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【东兴证券】大西洋:下游需求恢复与高附加值产品升级促进公司业绩增长

東興證券 ·  Mar 3, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Business outlook: The company's main products currently include electrodes, welding wires, and flux. Among them, electrodes and welding wires accounted for 66.35% and 31.00% of revenue in 2009, respectively, forming the main part of the company's revenue. Due to the overall improvement in the macroeconomy, the company's downstream industry continued to maintain a recovery trend in 2010, and the situation in the company's industry will improve markedly. As a leading enterprise in the industry, the company will be able to fully enjoy the opportunities for market recovery, and the company's performance will at least achieve moderate growth. We expect the company's sales volume of ordinary electrodes and solid core welding wires to increase by 10%. Although there are strong expectations of an increase in upstream steel prices, considering the company's high market share and brand awareness in the western region, prices can be transmitted downstream, and the rise in raw material prices has limited erosion on the company's profits. Since the gross margin of common types of electrodes and welding wires themselves is only about 10%, the company's ability to control costs is critical. The gross profit margin of special electrodes and special welding wires is far higher than that of ordinary types of electrodes and welding wires, at more than 20%. Taking flux-cored wire as an example, the company already has a production capacity of 10,000 tons. In March 2010, a new 10,000 ton flux-cored wire production line will also be put into trial production. In 2011, it achieved a total production capacity of 40,000 tons, contributing to the company's profits. Overall, we expect the growth rate of the company's special electrodes and welding wires to be around 30% to 40% in the next few years. Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect that from 2010 to 2012, the company's EPS will be 0.78, 1.01, and 1.27, respectively, and the corresponding P/E will be 24.2, 18.6, and 14.8 times, giving it a “recommended” rating.

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