For the first time, it was given a rating of "prudent overweight". The company's traditional business is suffering from the impact of high-speed rail, and competition with heavily subsidized modes of transport by the government is undoubtedly harmful to corporate health, but fortunately, the impact of quantitative measurement is still limited. The commissioning of the new station in 2015 will put the company back at the starting point of profit growth, and the future of the old station is also worth looking forward to. The company's adequate passenger traffic has not yet found a new profit model, but in the long run, the traffic itself is valuable. The company is expected to have an EPS0.59 of 0.56 and 0.61 yuan in 2014-2016, with a target price of 11.8 yuan with reference to the valuation of the automobile transportation company.
Assuming that the proportion of passenger lines is equal to that of income, the diversion of high-speed rail affects revenue by about 2%. The Hangzhou-long high-speed railway is expected to open to traffic by the end of 2014, and the opening of the high-speed railway will affect passenger lines in six prefecture-level cities along the line. Hangzhou long high-speed rail lines account for about 6.7% of the company's lines. It is assumed that the passenger volume of the shunt lines will drop by 50%, and the impact of the shunts on total revenue is expected to be 2.1%. The actual impact remains to be seen.
It is expected that the profit impact of the new station is not obvious for the time being. Nanchang Integrated passenger Transport Hub and Nanchangxi passenger Transport Hub are expected to be put into production by the end of 2014 or early 2015. According to our estimates, excluding advertising revenue, the two stations will lose nearly 8 million after completion, which will not have a significant impact on the company's net profit. The new station means a new profit model, compared with the passenger transport business, the station cost is relatively fixed, transport and non-transport revenue will stand at the new starting point of growth.
There is uncertainty in the compensation of land collection and storage in the long-distance bus terminal. The land of the company's Nanchang long-distance bus terminus may be collected and stored in the future, and it is difficult for the government to judge the price. Although there was an auction price of 19 million per mu of adjacent land, the price collected and stored by the government at that time was close to book value. Even the old station will only bring one-off benefits, and the direction of the company's future investment is the decisive factor of medium-and long-term value.
Risk tips: higher-than-expected high-speed rail diversion, losses at new stations, and safety risks.
