Announcement: In 2011, the company achieved operating income of 362 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.59%, achieving operating profit of 57,1298 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 47.78 million yuan, an increase of 13.40% and 0.15 yuan per share; achieved revenue of 105 million yuan, an increase of 23.42% year-on-year, and achieved net profit of 18.4 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%. Analysis conclusion: The wine business in '11 fell short of our expectations. The growth rate in the first quarter of '11 was faster, and the company's wine business rose steadily in '11, achieving revenue of 229 million yuan, up 12.52% year on year, and achieved revenue of 43.27 million yuan in the fourth quarter, down 34.3% year on year, lower than our expectations; wine revenue in the first quarter increased by 41% year on year, exceeding our expectations, probably due to seasonal adjustments. The gross margin of wine increased significantly. The gross margin of the wine business, which is still sustainable in the future, was 72.2%, up 8.7 percentage points year on year, mainly due to two aspects: first, the company's sales share of high-end products increased 38% year on year, and ice wine increased 37% year on year; second, the company gradually adjusted its sales policy starting in the fourth quarter, turning price discounts into cost support, increasing the price of tons of wine. These two trends will continue to be evident in 2012, and gross margins will increase further. The declining trend in barley malt business revenue worsened the company's barley malt business revenue in the first half of '11, with a year-on-year increase of 1.05%, but revenue fell 23.13% throughout the year, and revenue declined rapidly during the third quarter; the further decline in malt revenue in the first quarter was 46.53%, which should be a continuation of the decline in sales since the third quarter of last year. Malt revenue in the second quarter is still not optimistic. Looking at it, it will still decline from 2011. The fixed assets of the company's malt business are depreciated at more than 10 million yuan each year. On the one hand, the company's continued operation takes into account the employment of employees, and on the other hand, it is expected that the malt business will improve in the future. The profit forecast was lowered. The company's wine business was temporarily lower than our expectations. The company's 11-13 EPS was lowered to 0.15 yuan, 0.21 yuan, and 0.29 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current PE price of 69 times, 48 times, and 36 times, respectively. Considering that the company's wine business is currently in a period of heavy investment, revenue may grow rapidly due to seasonal adjustments, but the continuous sales volume still needs to be observed. It will take some time to increase the volume of new dealers, and temporarily give a “careful recommendation” rating. In the future, we need to pay more attention to the temporary sales situation during the peak season. Risk warning: Imported barley prices fall; macroeconomic downside risk.
【国联证券】莫高股份2011年年报及一季报点评:业绩低于预期,关注旺季销量提升
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