Key investment points: Make sure to turn a loss into a profit, asset exchange brings rebirth, and there is no worry about getting rid of the cap in 2015. According to the company's 2014 performance report, Tianweibao turned a loss into a profit in 2014. We have seen that the company's new energy business, as the main reason for its huge losses in 2012-2013, has been transferred to Tianwei Group through asset replacement. Currently, its assets are mainly in the transformer business. With the strategic return to the main business, the three subsidiaries in the industry focus on improving performance, and net operating profit is expected to continue to improve in the future. Relying on big trees to cool off, the Armament Group has invested a total of 12 billion dollars in shell storage with the intention of building a high-end heavy equipment platform. As one of China's top five military industry groups, the China Ordnance Equipment Group has controlled the listed company Tianwei Baobian by holding Tianwei Group since 2008. It mainly engages in special equipment, automobiles, etc., and has strong financial resources. Since 2013, through capital increases, asset swaps, debt-for-equity swaps, and credit financing, etc., the Armed Forces Group has injected more than 12 billion dollars into Tianweibao. On the one hand, it is focusing on shell preservation, and on the other hand, it has also changed from indirect control to direct holding, becoming the single largest shareholder of listed companies, and has directly held more than 56% of the shares of listed companies, benefiting from direct holdings and freezes. As the reform of state-owned enterprises begins, we expect the military equipment group to position the company as its heavy equipment platform, which is expected to continue to grow bigger and stronger. In the long run, it is not ruled out that the possibility of injecting the military assets under the group's dual main business to achieve a backdoor listing of the military goods business is not ruled out. The UHV and nuclear power industries are blowing strongly, and “maintaining change” is returning to the institutional vision of direct beneficiaries, and “going global” is even more worth looking forward to. In 2015, the construction plan for the UHV line of the State Grid was “five crossings and eight direct lines”, with a total investment of 13, with a total investment of over 300 billion dollars. According to our estimates, Tianwei's market share in the UHV transformer field is close to 30%, and it is expected that it will directly benefit from UHV construction. Furthermore, we believe that the “Belt and Road” is expected to lead UHV to “go global,” and that overseas markets will also perform well in the “13th Five-Year Plan.” In the field of nuclear power, China currently has 22 nuclear power units in operation and 26 units under construction. It is estimated that 40 million kilowatts of new installed capacity will be built in 2015-2020, with an average of 6 units to be built each year. We believe that China's coastal nuclear power projects are expected to be implemented at an accelerated pace, and that domestic projects represented by “Hualong 1” “going global” are worth looking forward to. As a leader in nuclear power transformers and a major supplier of domestically produced nuclear power unit transformers, Baobian is expected to fully benefit from the restart and development of nuclear power. The EPS for 14-16 is expected to be 0.04, 0.26, and 0.40 yuan. Considering that the company is currently at an inflection point in industry development and an inflection point in business operations, performance recovery is lagging behind, but the trend is already quite clear. It is recommended to refer to the 2016 corresponding valuation and focus on long-term growth. The recommended target price for 12 months is 12 yuan, covering the “buy” rating for the first time.
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【申万宏源】*ST天威:资产置换回归输变电主业,行业、公司均处周期拐点,买入
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