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【国联证券】莫高股份点评报告:布局葡萄基地,谋长远发展

國聯證券 ·  Jun 4, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The company signed a “Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement” with Wuwei City in Gansu Province. The two parties agreed that during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the Wuwei Municipal Government will support the company to build 10,000 mu of its own wine-growing base in the Wuwei region, with the Wuwei Municipal Government leading the adoption of 80,000 mu of “company+farmer” model development base; support the company to build a new “Mogao Wine Fort” with 30,000 tons of wine production capacity in the Wuwei region. Conclusion: Wuwei, Gansu is a recognized producer of high-quality grapes in China. Judging from the ecological environment, Wuwei City, located in the Hexi Corridor, is almost all located at 38 degrees north latitude in the best grape ecosystem in the world; the temperature difference between day and night is large. The frost-free period is about 160 days throughout the year. The grapes grow for a long time, which is conducive to the accumulation and transformation of aromatic substances and nutrients. The grapes are ripe enough, red grape varieties have good coloring, and generally have a sugar content of 210 g/L or more. Expanding its own vineyards and seizing scarce resources. The construction of the 10,000 mu wine-growing base mentioned in the company's current framework agreement should be part of the company's additional 20,000 mu wine-growing base in the 2008 additional project. After the base is completed, the company's own vineyard base will reach 30,000 mu, and at the same time develop 80,000 to 90,000 mu under the company+farmer model. In the context of scarce resources in high-quality grape production areas, this move will lay a solid foundation for the company's long-term development and is of strategic significance. Additional winemaking capacity was added to support the vineyard base company's current wine production capacity of 25,000 tons. Of these, Mogao Manor in Wuwei has a production capacity of 10,000 tons, and Mogao International Winery in Lanzhou has a production capacity of 15,000 tons. The 30,000 tons of wine production capacity planned to be built this time will mainly be used to support the newly built vineyards. Maintaining the “recommended” rating, the company's 12-14 EPS is expected to be 0.21 yuan, 0.29 yuan, and 0.37 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current PE price of 48.3 times, 35.9 times, and 27.7 times, respectively. The company is currently speeding up wine marketing and dealer recruitment. The business is in a period of heavy investment, and revenue is likely to increase beyond expectations. In addition, the construction of the above projects requires a large amount of capital, and financing needs are strong. At the same time, it is not ruled out that the company will divest the malt business and continue to give a “recommended” rating. Risk warning: declining marginal utility of marketing; macroeconomic downturn

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