Analysis conclusion: The revenue and profits of the agricultural and grass industry have little impact on the company. Based on the company's annual report data over the years, we initially calculated that the revenue scale of the company's forage business in 2010 was 30 million yuan, down from 2009. The gross margin fell sharply by more than 15 percentage points, and the performance was not ideal; the registered capital of China Agricultural Grass Industry is 8.5 million yuan, and the current net assets are 4.1753 million yuan. We can judge from this that the current business should be in a state of loss. From the perspective of the actual controller, this transaction resolved that the counterparty to which the company sold shares was Yasheng Industrial (Group) Co., Ltd., and the actual controllers of the company were all Gansu Agricultural Reclamation Group Co., Ltd.; prior to that, Yasheng Group also operated forage related businesses, so there was a competitive relationship between peers. This transaction can solve this problem very well, but we think the possibility of a premium on pricing is not high. The impact of the agricultural and grass industry on the company during sales has the following effects on the company: (1) reducing part of the revenue, which has little impact on the company's net profit; (2) partially solving the “1+1<2” problem of the company's business; (3) enabling the company to integrate industrial resources and focus on the main business; (4) the group's positioning on subordinate companies will gradually become clear, and the possibility of continuing business divestment will not be ruled out in the future. Maintaining the “recommended” rating, the company's 11-13 EPS is expected to be 0.28 yuan, 0.44 yuan, and 0.60 yuan, respectively, corresponding to the current PE price of 37.2 times, 23.9 times, and 17.3 times, respectively. Considering that the company's wine business is currently in the take-off stage, marketing effects will gradually be released, and the “recommended” rating will be maintained. Risk warning: natural disasters have led to a reduction in grape production or quality; promotion of marketing network construction has not met expectations; the risk of a downturn in the macroeconomy;
【国联证券】莫高股份出售子公司点评:解决同业竞争,进一步聚焦主业
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