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【西南证券】贵航股份:继续推进二次增发,产业机遇成就长远发展

西南證券 ·  Jan 15, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company announced the 2009 annual performance forecast announcement today. It is expected that in 2009 the company achieved a 50%-70% increase in net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company compared to 2008; at the same time, it was announced that the board of directors deliberated and agreed that the company would continue to promote this major asset restructuring, supplement and improve the application materials for this major asset restructuring in accordance with the opinions of the M&A and restructuring committee, and re-submit it to the China Securities Regulatory Commission for review as soon as possible. Comment: The net profit attributable to the company's shareholders in 2008 was 68,833,982.92 yuan. According to the announcement in 2009, the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company increased by 50% to 70% year-on-year, then it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2009 was 103,250,974.38 yuan to 117,017,770.96 yuan. The reason for the increase in performance during the reporting period was that, benefiting from the national automobile industry revitalization policy, the company's automobile sales increased sharply, and profits increased significantly. The auto parts business accounted for nearly 90% of the company's revenue, which played a decisive role in performance growth. At the end of 2009, the company's second issuance plan was not approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission's restructuring committee. The company announced yesterday that the board of directors will decide whether to revise or terminate this major asset restructuring plan within 10 days of receiving this decision. Today, it was also announced that it will continue to push forward with this major asset restructuring matter and supplement and improve the application materials for this major asset restructuring matter in accordance with the opinions of the M&A Reorganization Committee. Comparative analysis shows that the company may not make major adjustments to the plan, but rather add and improve some unclear aspects of the application materials. The company issued a second additional issue to purchase assets from three companies: China Aviation Biao, Fenglei Ordnance, and Tianyi Electric. These three companies accounted for a relatively large share of the aviation products business, accounting for 85%, 97%, and 37%, respectively. After the completion of this targeted distribution, the company's aviation products accounted for more than 35% after simulated restructuring, a further increase from the previous 10.13%, gradually forming a business structure combining auto parts and aviation products. Aviation products with strong profitability and broad development prospects will be an important support for the company's future development. With the gradual expansion of the scale of aviation products, the company will fully enjoy the rapid development opportunities of the “cake” of China's aviation manufacturing industry, gradually grow bigger and stronger, and aviation products will become the strongest contributor to the company's performance. We believe that even without major adjustments to the plan, the company's business scale and profitability will increase markedly after this additional issue is completed, and it is more likely that they will apply for the conference again. The company's two additional issuance and asset exchange actions were mainly concentrated at the Gui Airlines Group level. After the China Aviation Group formed the General Aircraft Division, the company once again injected Gui Air Group's aviation products and auto parts assets, increasing its leverage to become an integrated platform for GM Express. More and deeper restructuring and integration will be carried out on the broader platform of the Group's general aviation, and the major opportunities for the development of China's general aviation will be fully enjoyed. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 2009 were 0.358 yuan to 0.405 yuan. The current valuation is 59 times to 52 times. The valuation is a large increase from the previous period. Overall, the company's rating has been lowered to “increase holdings,” but there is still strong optimism over the long term, so it is recommended to buy on dips.

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