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【华泰联合证券】西昌电力:解债重大突破,走向重生之路

華泰聯合證券 ·  Jun 30, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Electric power integration company. The company is located in Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture in Sichuan. It is located in the Panxi region. It is an integrated power generation, supply and sales company. It also has hydroelectric power generation and power grid assets, and mainly supplies electricity to Xichang City. The installed capacity of equity is likely to triple in the future. Currently, equity has an installed capacity of 1281 million kilowatts, and will increase to 22.45 to 2381 million kilowatts by 2010, double the current level. If we consider the projects currently being planned, the company's future equity capacity may reach more than 500,000 kilowatts, four times that of now. Self-generating capacity has increased, increasing profitability. As the guaranteed debt is resolved, the company will resume financing functions and capital bottlenecks will gradually be resolved, the company will invest in more and more hydropower plants, achieve a higher proportion of self-generated electricity, and some of the excess electricity will be sold to the Sichuan power grid. At that time, both the company's revenue and gross margin will increase. It has benefited from the development of mineral resources and the development of hydropower in southwest China. Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture is rich in mineral resources, and there is great potential for hydropower development; large-scale development of hydropower in southwest China is approaching, and simultaneous construction of UHV power grids will achieve a larger proportion of “west-to-east transmission.” The guarantee problem is a hindrance to the company's development. Since the guarantee crisis broke out in April 2005, the company's financing platform has been seriously damaged, and the development of subsequent projects has been strained. Currently, the company's bank loans and equity financing channels have been lost, and the company's investment in subsequent hydropower projects can only rely on its own capital. A major breakthrough has been made in guaranteed debt settlement, and the company will embark on a path of rapid growth. In recent years, the company has been working to resolve the issue of guarantee debt. In 2007, the government stepped forward and settled 498 million yuan of guarantees by using shares such as hydropower development rights; on June 30, 2009, the company issued an announcement stating that it had jointly agreed with Jinxin Trust to end the original 120 million yuan loan contract dispute through execution and settlement, and actually incurred 12 million yuan. The successful resolution of the Jinxin Trust debt dispute marks a major breakthrough in the company's debt settlement work. The company's management is stepping up efforts to resolve the remaining guaranteed debt issues, aiming for completion within this year. If the company's guaranteed debt can be settled as soon as possible, it will be of great benefit to the company, marking that the company will finally break out of the haze of the past four years and move on to a path of rapid growth. Valuation and pricing: We believe that after the company's guarantee debt problem is resolved, the company will enter a stage of rapid development. Its valuation level should be higher than the average value of ordinary hydropower by 25 times, and the reasonable price-earnings ratio should be 30 times higher. According to the calculation of the profit generated by the company's actual business in 2010, the company's reasonable value range is 9 yuan.

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