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【天相投资】西昌电力:预计负债继续减少

天相投資 ·  Oct 27, 2009 00:00  · Researches

From January to September 2009, the company achieved operating income of 284 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.09%; realized operating profit of 56.9 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.75%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 155 million yuan, an increase of 139.36% over the previous year; and basic earnings per share were 0.425 yuan. In the third quarter, the company achieved operating income of 114 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.78%; realized operating profit of 39.87 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.68%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 33.96 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.72%; and basic earnings per share were 0.09 yuan. Electricity sales grew at a high month-on-month rate. The company's electricity sales increased 36% month-on-month in the third quarter of 2009, but the year-on-year decline was still declining. Electricity sales in the fourth quarter are likely to maintain a slight positive increase from month to month, but as self-owned hydropower enters a dry water period, an increase in outsourced electricity purchases due to a decrease in power generation may lower the company's gross margin level. Guaranteed liabilities are gradually resolved. The issue of guaranteed liabilities has plagued the company's development in recent years, and this issue made significant progress in 2009. The company successively signed execution settlement agreements with Cinda Asset, Jinxin Trust, Taiji Group, etc. to cancel the guarantee. At the beginning of 2009, the company's estimated debt was 408.5 million yuan. In the medium term, this figure fell to 296.9 million yuan, and continued to drop to 259.9 million yuan at the end of the third quarter. It is expected that the reduction in debt will enable the company to seize the opportunity of the country's vigorous promotion of clean energy construction and use its regional advantages to develop hydraulic resources in Liangshan Prefecture. Sichuan Electric Power obtained a controlling interest to enhance the company's development space. In 2009, the Sichuan Electric Power Company became the largest shareholder of the company. The company's development platform changed from Liangshan Prefecture to Sichuan Province. The Shawan Power Station, which holds 40% of the shares and has an installed capacity of 240,000 kilowatts, and the Yongning River Class 4 Power Plant with an installed capacity of 40,000 kilowatts controlled by the company are also about to be put into operation. Coupled with the cancellation of guarantee liabilities, the company is expected to enter a period of rapid development. The price of electricity sold is likely to rise. On August 20, 2008, the Development and Reform Commission raised the price of thermal power feed-in electricity by 2 cents without increasing sales at the same time, reducing the profit margins of power grid companies. With downstream electricity companies gradually returning to normal operations, electricity sales prices are expected to rise to a certain extent. Self-generated electricity accounts for about half of the company's electricity sales. According to our estimates, every 1 cent increase in the company's electricity sales price can increase the company's earnings per share by 1.2 cents. Profit forecasts and investment ratings. We expect the company's EPS from 2009 to 2011 to be 0.48 yuan, 0.25 yuan, and 0.35 yuan. Based on the closing price of 9.38 yuan on October 26, 2009, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratio is 20 times, 38 times, and 27 times, maintaining the company's “neutral” investment rating. Risk warning. There is a risk that the proportion of electricity purchased from outside sources will increase due to a decrease in self-generated power generation.

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