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【国金证券】西昌电力:干旱不改价值,建议积极买入

國金證券 ·  Mar 30, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The drought reduced its annual business goals. The profit model for Xichang Electric Power is to meet the electricity demand within its own power supply area through self-generation, the purchase of local small hydropower, and the purchase of electricity from the Sichuan Electric Power Company, and the sale of surplus electricity to the provincial power company during the peak season. As a result of this profit model, in the current arid climate of southwest China, the proportion of companies generating electricity from their own generation and purchasing small hydropower is greatly reduced, and they have to buy electricity from provincial power companies to meet local electricity demand; however, the cost of purchasing electricity online from the province is far higher than that of self-generating and purchasing small local hydropower, leading to a sharp decline in business performance over the same period last year. Another impact of the drought is that some high-energy enterprises in the region had to stop production due to lack of electricity and water, reducing the company's electricity supply and sales volume; in 2010, the company's business target is to generate 560 million kilowatt-hours of electricity, supply 1,235.96 billion kilowatt-hours, and sales volume of 1.1 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. Updated profit forecast We have revised our profit forecast based on January-February operating results. We forecast that Xichang Electric Power's 2010-2012 EPS will be 0.287 yuan, 0.351 yuan, and 0.417 yuan, respectively. We expect the company's sales revenue from 2010 to 2012 to be 518.90 million yuan, 600.46 million yuan and 697.72 million yuan respectively; year-on-year increases of 29.74%, 15.72% and 16.20%, respectively. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2010-2012 to be 104.79 million yuan, 127.88 million yuan and 151.89 million yuan, respectively; the year-on-year growth rates were -33.01%, 22.03%, and 18.78%, respectively.

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