The company's stock price has fluctuated greatly recently, according to our knowledge, the company's operation is normal, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The reason for the abnormal fluctuation of the stock price may come from the rumors that it may be involved in the potash project.

We believe that, due to the greater pressure on the development of the company's main business in recent years, it is not surprising to seek new growth points. Even if we invest in new chemical projects, there is still a lot of uncertainty about its profit prospects. Natural gas chemical products such as urea and methanol are faced with the risk that the industry expansion is too fierce or the market demand can not be effectively released. In China, it is difficult to obtain high-quality potash mineral resources, the production technology of potash fertilizer is difficult, there are many links, the transportation requirements are high, and the production and construction cycle is more than 3 years. To reorganize existing potash projects, it is necessary to balance the interests of all parties, and negotiations are extremely difficult and uncertain.

Limited by the company's own capital strength, investing in new large-scale projects will require large financing or high debt, so that the income brought by the new project to the original shareholders will face a lot of uncertainty. Therefore, we think that the market should not place too high expectations on the company's possible investment projects in the future.

If we put aside expectations for new projects, we think it is difficult for the current business to form a strong support for the stock price. The company's main profit comes from the fragrant pear business, which is expected to contribute no more than 30 million gross profit for the whole year. Considering the expenses during the period, the company's profit level will be very limited. Therefore, we believe that the current stock price already contains too many future expectations, the stock has a high investment risk and is given a "neutral" investment rating.