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【天相投资】贵航股份:重大资产整合仍将是公司的主要看点

天相投資 ·  Mar 30, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The 2009 annual report shows that from January to December, the company achieved operating income of 1,811 billion yuan, an increase of 23.74% over the same period last year; realized operating profit of 163.68 million yuan, an increase of 94.16% over the same period last year; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 103.94 million yuan, an increase of 51.01% over the same period last year; and earnings per share of 0.36 yuan. The weighted average return on net assets was 7.71%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous year. 2009 Annual Distribution Plan: It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 0.71 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares. Operating income has benefited from rapid growth in automobile production and sales. The company's main products are automobile sealing strip series, air filter and radiator series, automobile lock and switch series, automobile special-shaped hose and transmission belt series, and aviation product series. Currently, it mainly focuses on the auto parts business, and the auto parts business accounts for 91.89% of the main revenue. During the reporting period, the company seized on the favorable situation of rapid growth in automobile production and sales in China and met the loading needs of automakers. The production and sales revenue of major products reached record highs, achieving a year-on-year increase of 23.74% and 94.16% in main business revenue and operating profit, respectively. The cost ratio remained stable during the period, and the overall gross margin increased. During the reporting period, the company's consolidated gross margin was 24.05%, up 2.76 percentage points from the previous year. The gross margin of the auto parts category increased by 3.79 percentage points, and the gross margin of aviation products decreased by 3.87 percentage points. Compared with the same period last year, the ratio of expenses for the period, the ratio of sales expenses, and the ratio of management expenses have remained basically stable. The increase in gross margin and the stability of the cost ratio level indicate that the company's ability to control costs and manage expenses is strong. In addition, investment income contributed by Mitsui Huayang Auto Parts Co., Ltd., the company's shareholding company, China Aviation First Group Finance Company, increased 66% year over year during the reporting period. Therefore, the increase in the company's operating profit is far greater than the increase in operating income. After the acquisition plan was rejected, asset restructuring continued to be promoted. On January 14, 2010, the company issued an announcement that the Securities Regulatory Commission did not approve the company's acquisition plan. After receiving the notice, the company immediately decided to continue the major asset restructuring work and submit the revised acquisition plan as soon as possible. The major asset restructuring of the company's non-public offering of shares to the three companies to acquire related assets will still be a major focus in 2010. We believe there is a high probability that the company will complete the asset acquisition within 2010. After this restructuring is successful, the company's overall profitability will be greatly improved. As an integrated platform for general aviation assets, the company has more room for imagination. The company is positioned as a platform for the integration of general aviation assets of the China Aviation Industry Group. The current asset acquisition plan is only asset integration at the Gui Airlines Group level, yet under the overall plan of China Aviation Industry Group to achieve the listing of related assets within three years, the company is likely to have more in-depth integration space, thus becoming the main force in the domestic general aviation sector. Earnings forecasts and investment ratings. Assuming that the restructuring can be completed within the year, based on the level of profitability of the injected assets, combined with the judgment on future trends in the auto parts industry and the aviation parts industry, the total share capital after the successful restructuring is 378.88 million shares, the company's EPS for 2010 to 2012 is expected to be 0.62 yuan, 0.72 yuan, and 0.80 yuan, respectively. Based on yesterday's closing price of 22.87 yuan, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratio levels were 37 times, 32 times, and 29 times, respectively. Compared with 38-40 times the 2010 Tianxiang military industry dynamic PE, the valuation is relatively reasonable. As asset integration expectations become stronger, the company still has a certain investment value, and we maintain our “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning: 1) Uncertain risks posed by changes in China's air traffic control policy to the company's performance. 2) The risk that the asset restructuring plan cannot be implemented within the year; 3) The risk that the growth rate of production and sales in the downstream automobile industry will decline.

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