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【东海证券】华丽家族:资产质地优良,业绩符合预期

東海證券 ·  Feb 22, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The 2010 annual performance was 0.98 yuan per share, which is basically in line with expectations. Huali Family announced its 2010 report today. The company achieved operating income of 457 million yuan during the year, a year-on-year increase of 471%, a settlement area of 22,000 square meters, non-operating income of 515 million yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company of 519 million yuan, and earnings per share of 0.98 yuan, which is basically in line with our expectations. The company announced that it plans to give a bonus of 3.5 shares for every 10 shares and a cash dividend of 5 yuan (tax included). The review stated that the company achieved net profit of 519 million yuan, fulfilled its share reform promises, and its performance was mainly due to equity transfers. In 2010, the company transferred 48.4761% of the shares of Shanghai Hongsheng Company, bringing the company a net profit of 392 million yuan, fulfilling the promise of a total net profit of not less than 600 million yuan for 2009-2010 at the time of asset restructuring. The company's financial position is sound, capital expenditure is manageable, and future financial risks are limited. The book cash was 1.2 billion yuan, up 45.7% year on year; the balance ratio at the end of the period was 66.5%, up 5.9 percentage points from the previous year; the real balance ratio was 59.0%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous year; long-term loans increased 1.4 billion yuan, and the net debt ratio increased by 22.9 percentage points to 83.6%, but it was still within manageable range. The company's assets are of excellent quality, and the three large-scale real estate projects are actually super profitable cows. “Gorgeous Family: Taishang Lake”, “Shanghai Xintiandi 43 Neighborhoods”, and “Huijing Tiandi” are all high-end. Among them, Shanghai Xintiandi is famous all over the world, selling over 100,000 yuan/square meter, Huijingtiandi selling for 75,000 yuan/square meter, and Taishang Lake for 20,000 yuan/square meter (10-year settlement gross margin is as high as 53%). According to conservative estimates, the three projects could contribute 9 billion yuan in net profit, totaling 17 yuan per share based on current share capital. Looking ahead, the acquisition of the remaining shares in Jinjian will boost 11-12 performance. Considering the current situation where the company's land reserves are weak, the majority shareholders promised that when conditions are ripe, part or even all of the 49% shares in Golden Stack will be transferred to a listed company. The project is expected to be fully completed in 2011, with 49% equity corresponding to sales revenue of about 5 billion yuan and net profit of not less than 1 billion yuan. The acquisition will have a great impact on the company's profit in 11-12 years. Real estate regulation is being normalized, and the company is trying to cultivate a second main business. In order to effectively smooth out fluctuations in performance, the company acquired 40% of Huatai Great Wall Futures shares in 2010 and obtained an investment income of 10 million yuan in 4 months. In 2011, the company will continue to focus on hot industries and choose experimental investments at the right time. Based on the current share capital, it is estimated that the company's EPS for 2011 and 2012 will be 1.30 yuan and 1.82 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 13X and 9X respectively. It is conservatively estimated that the company's NAV21.8 yuan. The company's current stock price is relatively discounted by 23%, which has a good margin of safety. Set the company's target price of 20 yuan for the next 6 months and give it a “buy” investment rating.

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