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【招商证券】华丽家族:业绩释放将在明后年

招商證券 ·  Aug 27, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Interim results fell short of expectations: in the first half of 2010, the company achieved main revenue of 143 million yuan (YOY -73.29%); realized net profit of 6.28 million yuan (YOY -92.3%); the company's commercial housing sales in the first half of the year did not carry over, so the performance for the previous half of the year was basically not released. The company achieved EPS of 0.01 yuan, lower than our expectations; in the first half of the year, the Suzhou Taishang Lake project sales were poor, and repayment was slow: The main source contributing to the company's performance this year, the Suzhou Taishang Lake villa project is currently poor sales. By the end of June, 31 units had been pre-sold, with a sales area of 17,600 square meters and a pre-sale price of 323 million yuan. Last year, the company's annual report had an advance account balance of zero, and the company's semi-annual report reflected 180 million yuan of prepaid housing payments, and the repayment level was 56%, indicating that the company's repayment speed was slow; the company plans to acquire 51% of the shares in the Huijingtiandi Project, the majority shareholder, the marketable area of the Huijingtiandi Project has reached 77,000 square meters. The estimated sales price of the project will be completed by the end of 2011. It is expected that the performance of the project will be completed by the end of 2011 and 2012, and will be carried over from 2011 to 2012. Foundation; Major Shareholders It is promised that net profit for 2010 will not be less than 505 million yuan: The controlling shareholder Dongnjiang Group promised during the restructuring that the total net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company achieved by Huali Family in 2009 and 2010 will not be less than 600 million yuan. If the actual amount of profit realized falls below the promised amount, the Nanjiang Group will make up the difference in cash. According to the current total share capital calculation, the company's net profit in 2010 is expected to be no less than 505 million yuan, including earnings of 0.96 yuan per share; performance forecast and investment rating: Given the increase in performance brought about by the company's future absorption of the majority shareholder Huijingtiandi Project, we will appropriately improve the company's performance forecast for the next year. We expect the company's EPS for 2010, 2011 and 2012 to be $0.96, $1.18, and $1.39, respectively. The company's 2010 RNAV was 8.53 yuan. We maintain the target value of the company's stock price of 14.4 yuan and maintain the company's “prudent recommendation” investment rating; risk warning: The company's Suzhou Taishang Lake project sales are poor.

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