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【申银万国】华丽家族:华丽转身,双轮驱动

申萬宏源 ·  Feb 22, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: In 2010, Huali Family achieved operating income of 458 million yuan and operating profit of 127 million yuan, up 471% and 43% year on year, respectively; the company's annual net profit was 519 million yuan, up 448% year on year, and EPS was 0.98 yuan. The sharp increase in operating income was mainly due to the settlement of the company's single-family and townhouse projects in Taishang Lake in Suzhou during the reporting period; the higher net profit than operating profit was mainly due to the company's transfer of contract acquisition rights for the Xintiandi Project to obtain 505 million yuan of non-operating income. Monetization drives abundant cash flow and performance growth, and transforms and nurtures the second major business to contribute new business growth points. The company began a gradual transformation in 2010, and the strategic direction was further determined in 2011, gradually cultivating a second business growth point. During the transformation process, on the one hand, the company obtained sufficient cash flow and achieved high profit growth by monetizing existing resources. By the end of 2010, the company had 1.09 million square meters of equity and land reserves, which could contribute more than 3 billion dollars in cumulative profits, 1.2 billion dollars in book cash, and an interest-bearing debt ratio of 44%; on the other hand, it was actively seeking to cultivate the secondary sector, and early acquisitions showed the company's ability to discover value. It successfully acquired 40% of Huatai Great Wall Futures in 2010, and plans to invest more than 2 billion dollars in 2011. There is a high degree of certainty about performance growth. Future investments have excessive profitability, and for the first time, the rating is “increase in holdings.” It is estimated that in 2011 and 2012, the company's EPS will be 1.26 and 1.75 yuan, with growth rates of 27% and 32%, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 13 to 10 times; the company's RNAV will be 12 yuan. Although there is a certain premium, it is given an increase rating considering the certainty of performance growth brought about by real estate and the excess returns that can be generated from future investments. The catalyst for future stock price performance is the acquisition and announcement of new investment projects, and the transfer of shares in Xintiandi.

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